{"source":"polymarket","id":"1107822","ticker":"next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","slug":"next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","title":"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T09:19:48Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1125.3714870000001,"volume_24hr":1125.371487,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.788949966430664,"normalized_volume":11.222647666931152,"liquidity":1642.731,"open_interest":372.667286,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"104793","slug":"israel-election","label":"Israel Election"},{"id":"1597","slug":"global-elections","label":"Global Elections"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Person A","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.399301Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.399301Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.107430Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,60.0,60.0,60.0,60.0,60.0,60.0,60.0,60.0,572.0,628.083334,707.726192,725.726192,725.726192,1125.371487],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5151782","event_id":"1107822","slug":"will-no-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security-be-appointed-by-february-28-2027","question":"Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?","group_item_title":"No Next Minister by Feb 28","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.345,0.655],"probability":0.345,"spread":0.27,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T09:19:48Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":172.0,"volume_24hr":172.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.135,"volume_24h_change":172.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.956293106079102,"normalized_volume":7.791438102722168,"liquidity":163.5551,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.161533Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security/will-no-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security-be-appointed-by-february-28-2027","event_title":"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?","chart_24h":[0.48,0.455,0.455,0.45,0.245,0.24,0.24,0.255,0.25,0.225,0.25,0.235,0.25,0.265,0.27,0.17,0.135,0.14,0.15,0.345]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5151752","event_id":"1107822","slug":"will-amir-ohana-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","question":"Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?","group_item_title":"Amir Ohana","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-amir-ohana-ba4e395dcb.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-amir-ohana-ba4e395dcb.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.15,0.85],"probability":0.15,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T09:19:48Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":185.32333400000002,"volume_24hr":185.323334,"prob_24h_change":-0.275,"volume_24h_change":185.323334,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.303041458129883,"normalized_volume":8.017399787902832,"liquidity":379.043,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.161533Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security/will-amir-ohana-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","event_title":"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?","chart_24h":[0.43,0.425,0.43,0.23,0.23,0.255,0.265,0.245,0.275,0.225,0.215,0.245,0.255,0.245,0.235,0.235,0.15]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5151754","event_id":"1107822","slug":"will-gideon-saar-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","question":"Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?","group_item_title":"Gideon Sa’ar","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-gideon-sa-ar-5325d9f8b5.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-gideon-sa-ar-5325d9f8b5.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.15,0.85],"probability":0.15,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T09:19:48Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":85.24,"volume_24hr":85.24,"prob_24h_change":-0.275,"volume_24h_change":85.24,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.944138526916504,"normalized_volume":5.828537464141846,"liquidity":300.1994,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.161533Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security/will-gideon-saar-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","event_title":"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?","chart_24h":[0.43,0.43,0.43,0.425,0.14,0.13,0.255,0.25,0.24,0.225,0.24,0.235,0.255,0.255,0.22,0.24,0.215,0.25,0.15]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5151751","event_id":"1107822","slug":"will-itamar-ben-gvir-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","question":"Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?","group_item_title":"Itamar Ben Gvir","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-itamar-ben-gvir-9bd7ddaf0c.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-itamar-ben-gvir-9bd7ddaf0c.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.14,0.86],"probability":0.14,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T09:19:48Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72.642858,"volume_24hr":72.642858,"prob_24h_change":-0.285,"volume_24h_change":72.642858,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.32162094116211,"normalized_volume":5.422867298126221,"liquidity":289.2758,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.161533Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security/will-itamar-ben-gvir-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","event_title":"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?","chart_24h":[0.43,0.425,0.23,0.23,0.255,0.265,0.245,0.28,0.285,0.285,0.22,0.23,0.195,0.115,0.085,0.09,0.14]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5151753","event_id":"1107822","slug":"will-avi-dichter-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","question":"Will Avi Dichter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?","group_item_title":"Avi Dichter","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-avi-dichter-ca0f25eee6.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-avi-dichter-ca0f25eee6.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.09,0.91],"probability":0.09,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T09:19:48Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":339.165295,"volume_24hr":339.165295,"prob_24h_change":-0.33499999999999996,"volume_24h_change":339.165295,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.299581527709961,"normalized_volume":9.970125198364258,"liquidity":216.2855,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.161533Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security/will-avi-dichter-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","event_title":"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?","chart_24h":[0.43,0.43,0.43,0.23,0.255,0.255,0.27,0.235,0.425,0.245,0.24,0.305,0.305,0.29,0.21,0.195,0.15,0.09]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5151755","event_id":"1107822","slug":"will-yossi-cohen-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","question":"Will Yossi Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?","group_item_title":"Yossi Cohen","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-yossi-cohen-88b739d047.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-yossi-cohen-88b739d047.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.065,0.935],"probability":0.065,"spread":0.09,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-30T09:19:48Z","end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":271.0,"volume_24hr":271.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.36,"volume_24h_change":271.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.148247718811035,"normalized_volume":9.219846725463867,"liquidity":234.6056,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T09:47:49.641632Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.161533Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security/will-yossi-cohen-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","event_title":"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?","chart_24h":[0.43,0.43,0.43,0.23,0.255,0.25,0.255,0.25,0.245,0.225,0.24,0.24,0.225,0.23,0.245,0.38,0.185,0.2,0.065]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5151783","event_id":"1107822","slug":"will-another-individual-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","question":"Will another individual be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?","group_item_title":"Other","description":"This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.\n\nThe individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.\n\nIf the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/flag+israel.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":1.0,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":null,"end_date":"2027-03-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["World","Politics","Elections"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.161533Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.161533Z","added_at":"2026-09-30T09:30:48.161533Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security/will-another-individual-be-the-next-israeli-minister-of-national-security","event_title":"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1107822","as_of":"2026-10-01T10:00:45.258565Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Next Israeli Minister of National Security?\" — top market at 9% probability across 7 outcomes","source_url":null}}