{"source":"polymarket","id":"1111195","ticker":"will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october","slug":"will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october","title":"Will Claude go down on __ days in October?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T00:07:34Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3569.138991,"volume_24hr":1233.60659,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.00348663330078,"normalized_volume":15.208415985107422,"liquidity":1492.26952,"open_interest":1414.548937,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"103303","slug":"claude","label":"Claude"},{"id":"1563","slug":"outage","label":"outage"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"969","slug":"downtime","label":"downtime"},{"id":"553","slug":"anthropic","label":"Anthropic"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"5-7","top_outcome_probability":0.375,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.034999999999999976,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":356.9124720000001,"updated_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:46.350461Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:46.350461Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T00:28:04.634059Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october","chart_24h":[747.805923,767.805923,748.805923,748.805923,748.805923,880.703883,942.951719,982.951719,930.375493,722.736091,727.2760910000001,703.130764,685.720764,607.256196,822.225608,822.225608,800.8756079999999,980.8756079999999,1008.8756079999999,1088.875608,1208.178942,1148.178942,1163.678942,1149.688942,1149.688942,1149.688942,1149.688942,1238.30659,1298.30659,1233.60659],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5166925","event_id":"1111195","slug":"will-claude-go-down-5-7-times-in-october","question":"Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?","group_item_title":"5-7","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.375,0.625],"probability":0.375,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T00:07:34Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1518.309402,"volume_24hr":560.7012940000001,"prob_24h_change":0.034999999999999976,"volume_24h_change":356.9124720000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.877843856811523,"normalized_volume":15.746475219726562,"liquidity":257.838,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T00:28:04.807218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october/will-claude-go-down-5-7-times-in-october","event_title":"Will Claude go down on __ days in October?","chart_24h":[0.34,0.35,0.345,0.41,0.485,0.395,0.395,0.395,0.425,0.43,0.42,0.425,0.405,0.355,0.365,0.365,0.375,0.405,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.375]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5166926","event_id":"1111195","slug":"will-claude-go-down-8-10-times-in-october","question":"Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?","group_item_title":"8-10","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.33,0.67],"probability":0.33,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T00:07:34Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":475.560145,"volume_24hr":166.105884,"prob_24h_change":-0.034999999999999976,"volume_24h_change":-19.083386999999988,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.379060745239258,"normalized_volume":11.156781196594238,"liquidity":444.0982,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T00:28:04.807218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october/will-claude-go-down-8-10-times-in-october","event_title":"Will Claude go down on __ days in October?","chart_24h":[0.365,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.345,0.345,0.345,0.345,0.32,0.38,0.375,0.325,0.335,0.335,0.33,0.33,0.33]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5166924","event_id":"1111195","slug":"will-claude-go-down-fewer-than-5-times-in-october","question":"Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?","group_item_title":"<5","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.195,0.805],"probability":0.195,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T00:07:34Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":701.4208279999999,"volume_24hr":241.89941199999998,"prob_24h_change":0.07,"volume_24h_change":37.357995999999986,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.95128059387207,"normalized_volume":12.60467529296875,"liquidity":173.2714,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T00:28:04.807218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october/will-claude-go-down-fewer-than-5-times-in-october","event_title":"Will Claude go down on __ days in October?","chart_24h":[0.125,0.125,0.125,0.13,0.195,0.2,0.195,0.14,0.135,0.215,0.215,0.235,0.18,0.14,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.195,0.2,0.4,0.195]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5166927","event_id":"1111195","slug":"will-claude-go-down-11-13-times-in-october","question":"Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?","group_item_title":"11-13","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.18,0.82],"probability":0.18,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T00:07:34Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":590.523966,"volume_24hr":199.9,"prob_24h_change":0.03999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":80.39000000000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.139422416687012,"normalized_volume":11.952461242675781,"liquidity":266.2008,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T00:28:04.807218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october/will-claude-go-down-11-13-times-in-october","event_title":"Will Claude go down on __ days in October?","chart_24h":[0.14,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.11,0.09,0.085,0.09,0.095,0.105,0.105,0.095,0.125,0.175,0.195,0.175,0.16,0.09,0.135]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5166928","event_id":"1111195","slug":"will-claude-go-down-14-times-in-october","question":"Will Claude go down 14+ times in October?","group_item_title":"14+","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march-Ef454tp7GDYC.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":0.018,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T00:07:34Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":283.32464999999996,"volume_24hr":65.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.011000000000000001,"volume_24h_change":19.83535,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.953564167022705,"normalized_volume":9.366191864013672,"liquidity":239.70092,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T08:08:49.941026Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T00:28:04.807218Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october/will-claude-go-down-14-times-in-october","event_title":"Will Claude go down on __ days in October?","chart_24h":[0.021,0.021,0.021,0.021,0.011,0.01,0.0095,0.0095,0.01,0.0095,0.01,0.01]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1111195","as_of":"2026-10-05T08:22:54.208293Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Claude go down on __ days in October?\" — top market at 38% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}