{"source":"polymarket","id":"1113709","ticker":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06","title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nIf the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the \"0 states\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T13:00:23Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":20.8,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"},{"id":"102169","slug":"hide-from-new","label":"Hide From New"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1-2 states","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-02T07:02:28.495184Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T07:02:28.495184Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T13:12:48.384806Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5175460","event_id":"1113709","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-1-2","question":"Will 1-2 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"1-2 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nIf the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the \"0 states\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":0.98,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T13:00:23Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.2,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:05.366737Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:05.366737Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T13:12:48.456477Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-1-2","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.495,0.49,0.485,0.5]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5175464","event_id":"1113709","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-5-6","question":"Will 5-6 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"5-6 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nIf the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the \"0 states\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":0.98,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T13:00:23Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.2,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:05.366737Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:05.366737Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T13:12:48.456477Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-5-6","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.495,0.49,0.485,0.5]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5175468","event_id":"1113709","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-10-plus","question":"Will 10 or more states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"10 or more states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nIf the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the \"0 states\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":0.98,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T13:00:23Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.2,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:05.366737Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:05.366737Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T13:12:48.456477Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-10-plus","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.495,0.485,0.5]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5175459","event_id":"1113709","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-0","question":"Will no states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"0 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nIf the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the \"0 states\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.5,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T13:00:23Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.24,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":10.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T07:02:28.644061Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T07:02:28.644061Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T13:12:48.456477Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-0","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.495,0.495,0.485,0.185,0.26,0.26,0.185,0.5,0.5,0.26,0.26]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5175461","event_id":"1113709","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-3-4","question":"Will 3-4 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"3-4 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nIf the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the \"0 states\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.5,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T13:00:23Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.24,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":34.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T07:02:28.644061Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T07:02:28.644061Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T13:12:48.456477Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-3-4","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.49,0.485,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.5,0.5,0.185,0.26]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5175466","event_id":"1113709","slug":"states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-7-9","question":"Will 7-9 states be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?","group_item_title":"7-9 states","description":"This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.\n\nBrackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves \"Yes\".\n\nThe count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.\n\nEach USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.\n\nResolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nIf the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the \"0 states\" bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-virginia-reach-d4-exceptional-drought-by-august-30-2026-20260721192059707-Z7tLN7b37A5q.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.5,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T13:00:23Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T13:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.24,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":17.2,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T07:02:28.644061Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T07:02:28.644061Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T13:12:48.456477Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06/states-in-d4-drought-2026-10-06-7-9","event_title":"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.49,0.485,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.5,0.5,0.26,0.26]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1113709","as_of":"2026-10-02T07:19:08.488686Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of October 6, 2026?\" — top market at 50% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}