{"source":"polymarket","id":"1116495","ticker":"how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october","slug":"how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october","title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-2025-yNf76ihPd5I3.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-2025-yNf76ihPd5I3.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:57Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1791.3101809999998,"volume_24hr":1791.310181,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.343027114868164,"normalized_volume":12.755112648010254,"liquidity":977.4645,"open_interest":893.345217,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"tags":[{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"120","slug":"finance","label":"Finance"},{"id":"100196","slug":"fed-rates","label":"Fed Rates"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"102028","slug":"treasuries","label":"Treasuries"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Below 4.95%","top_outcome_probability":0.825,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.32499999999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":315.99,"updated_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.822061Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.822061Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.511315Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,20.0,20.0,62.0,62.0,62.0,62.0,62.0,82.0,422.0,549.866847,609.866847,609.866847,683.846847,1090.5001809999999,1120.5001809999999,1129.100181,1148.610181,1791.310181],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5194845","event_id":"1116495","slug":"will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt95-in-october","question":"Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?","group_item_title":"Below 4.95%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.825,0.175],"probability":0.825,"spread":0.29,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:58Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":315.99,"volume_24hr":315.99,"prob_24h_change":0.32499999999999996,"volume_24h_change":315.99,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.93544864654541,"normalized_volume":9.730222702026367,"liquidity":36.1017,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.532251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october/will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt95-in-october","event_title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.74,0.735,0.73,0.735,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.795,0.4,0.38,0.675,0.495,0.825]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5194846","event_id":"1116495","slug":"will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt92-in-october","question":"Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.92% in October?","group_item_title":"Below 4.92%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.77,0.23],"probability":0.77,"spread":0.26,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:58Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":262.0,"volume_24hr":262.0,"prob_24h_change":0.27,"volume_24h_change":262.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.046457290649414,"normalized_volume":9.1094970703125,"liquidity":37.1015,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.532251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october/will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt92-in-october","event_title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.74,0.735,0.73,0.73,0.83,0.83,0.765,0.675,0.65,0.39,0.665,0.6,0.77]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5194847","event_id":"1116495","slug":"will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt89-in-october","question":"Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.89% in October?","group_item_title":"Below 4.89%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.615,0.385],"probability":0.615,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:58Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20.0,"volume_24hr":20.0,"prob_24h_change":0.11499999999999999,"volume_24h_change":20.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.894796371459961,"normalized_volume":2.719484329223633,"liquidity":168.9489,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T09:53:20.256182Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T09:53:20.256182Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.532251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october/will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt89-in-october","event_title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.26,0.73,0.735,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.615]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5194849","event_id":"1116495","slug":"will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt83-in-october","question":"Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.83% in October?","group_item_title":"Below 4.83%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.54,0.46],"probability":0.54,"spread":0.32,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:58Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":290.0,"volume_24hr":290.0,"prob_24h_change":0.040000000000000036,"volume_24h_change":290.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.524507522583008,"normalized_volume":9.443288803100586,"liquidity":145.3847,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.532251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october/will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt83-in-october","event_title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.255,0.375,0.395,0.215,0.36,0.365,0.54]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5194848","event_id":"1116495","slug":"will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt86-in-october","question":"Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.86% in October?","group_item_title":"Below 4.86%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.515,0.485],"probability":0.515,"spread":0.37,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:58Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":220.0,"volume_24hr":220.0,"prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":220.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.244422912597656,"normalized_volume":8.54948902130127,"liquidity":32.1015,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.532251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october/will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt86-in-october","event_title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.26,0.265,0.27,0.275,0.32,0.41,0.415,0.42,0.425,0.265,0.515]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5194850","event_id":"1116495","slug":"will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt80-in-october","question":"Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% in October?","group_item_title":"Below 4.80%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.445,0.555],"probability":0.445,"spread":0.31,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:57Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":271.7,"volume_24hr":271.7,"prob_24h_change":-0.05499999999999999,"volume_24h_change":271.7,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.216609001159668,"normalized_volume":9.228302955627441,"liquidity":79.2613,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.532251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october/will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt80-in-october","event_title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.26,0.27,0.265,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.275,0.275,0.285,0.27,0.29,0.295,0.445]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5194852","event_id":"1116495","slug":"will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt70-in-october","question":"Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?","group_item_title":"Below 4.70%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.295,0.705],"probability":0.295,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:57Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":82.144783,"volume_24hr":82.144783,"prob_24h_change":-0.20500000000000002,"volume_24h_change":82.144783,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.211179733276367,"normalized_volume":5.733335971832275,"liquidity":255.2113,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T13:27:47.893123Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.532251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october/will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt70-in-october","event_title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.26,0.275,0.075,0.395,0.395,0.315,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.46,0.27,0.28,0.285,0.295]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5194851","event_id":"1116495","slug":"will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt75-in-october","question":"Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.75% in October?","group_item_title":"Below 4.75%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.265,0.735],"probability":0.265,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:57Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20.0,"volume_24hr":20.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.235,"volume_24h_change":20.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.894796371459961,"normalized_volume":2.719484329223633,"liquidity":395.8072,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T09:32:11.913204Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T09:32:11.913204Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.532251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october/will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt75-in-october","event_title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.26,0.265,0.08,0.075,0.39,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.26,0.255,0.26,0.265]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5194853","event_id":"1116495","slug":"will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt65-in-october","question":"Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% in October?","group_item_title":"Below 4.65%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under \"Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates\" for the column \"5 Yr\" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.14,0.86],"probability":0.14,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-01T23:35:57Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":309.4753979999999,"volume_24hr":309.475398,"prob_24h_change":-0.36,"volume_24h_change":309.475398,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.835132598876953,"normalized_volume":9.660178184509277,"liquidity":45.5617,"categories":["Economy","Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T13:06:51.789479Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T13:06:51.789479Z","added_at":"2026-10-01T23:39:37.532251Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-5-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october/will-the-5-year-treasury-yield-dip-below-4pt65-in-october","event_title":"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.26,0.075,0.08,0.41,0.16,0.16,0.43,0.175,0.555,0.155,0.445,0.14]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1116495","as_of":"2026-10-02T13:37:29.851942Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?\" — top market at 82% probability across 9 outcomes","source_url":null}}