{"source":"polymarket","id":"1124896","ticker":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026","title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:24Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1774.0290669999997,"volume_24hr":1774.0290670000004,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.23455810546875,"normalized_volume":12.721620559692383,"liquidity":3322.7431,"open_interest":1492.92211,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"104311","slug":"moscow","label":"Moscow"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"464","slug":"military-action","label":"Military Actions"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"October 4","top_outcome_probability":0.835,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.33999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1748.6692419999997,"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.205122Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.205122Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.001290Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026","chart_24h":[10.1515,10.1515,20.1515,20.1515,20.1515,20.1515,20.1515,20.1515,20.1515,72.2715,83.172553,83.172553,88.380878,88.380878,349.200878,349.200878,1351.245912,1769.4606960000003,1769.4606960000003,1769.4606960000003,1774.0290670000004],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237618","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-4-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 4","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.835,0.165],"probability":0.835,"spread":0.11,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:24Z","end_date":"2026-10-05T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1748.6692419999997,"volume_24hr":1748.6692419999997,"prob_24h_change":0.33999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":1748.6692419999997,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.779863357543945,"normalized_volume":16.35918617248535,"liquidity":907.6005,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-4-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.89,0.895,0.89,0.885,0.95,0.94,0.84,0.78,0.825,0.83,0.835]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237617","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-3-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 3, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 3","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action after market creation on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.235,0.765],"probability":0.235,"spread":0.47,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:24Z","end_date":"2026-10-04T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25.359825,"volume_24hr":25.359825,"prob_24h_change":-0.26,"volume_24h_change":15.208325,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.757401943206787,"normalized_volume":3.14074444770813,"liquidity":74.6848,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-3-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.485,0.485,0.375,0.355,0.375,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.375,0.37,0.38,0.385,0.37,0.255,0.23,0.245,0.235,0.235]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237626","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-12-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 12, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 12","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.54,0.46],"probability":0.54,"spread":0.78,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:26Z","end_date":"2026-10-13T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.04500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":131.6021,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T06:23:20.548143Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T06:23:20.548143Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-12-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.475,0.485,0.5,0.505,0.5,0.505,0.505,0.495,0.485,0.51,0.505,0.515,0.52,0.515,0.525,0.54]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237628","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-14-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 14, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 14","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.54,0.46],"probability":0.54,"spread":0.74,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-15T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.04500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":112.5226,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-14-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.48,0.485,0.485,0.51,0.495,0.5,0.48,0.495,0.48,0.465,0.505,0.5,0.505,0.51,0.535,0.545,0.54]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237619","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-5-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 5, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 5","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.535,0.465],"probability":0.535,"spread":0.77,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:24Z","end_date":"2026-10-06T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.040000000000000036,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":153.1684,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T02:31:31.401545Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T02:31:31.401545Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-5-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.53,0.515,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.535,0.535,0.515,0.52,0.535]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237621","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-7-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 7","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.525,0.475],"probability":0.525,"spread":0.75,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:24Z","end_date":"2026-10-08T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.030000000000000027,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":72.2279,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:35:51.682771Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:35:51.682771Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-7-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.485,0.52,0.515,0.53,0.52,0.535,0.555,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.525]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237629","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-15-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 15","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.52,0.48],"probability":0.52,"spread":0.74,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.025000000000000022,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":106.782,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-15-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.505,0.495,0.505,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.495,0.515,0.525,0.54,0.52]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237623","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-9-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 9","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.51,0.49],"probability":0.51,"spread":0.84,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:24Z","end_date":"2026-10-10T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":123.7741,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:35:51.682771Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:35:51.682771Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-9-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.485,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.495,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.485,0.48,0.495,0.51,0.5,0.455,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.51]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237625","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-11-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 11, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 11","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.51,0.49],"probability":0.51,"spread":0.7,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:26Z","end_date":"2026-10-12T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":122.9122,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-11-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.47,0.49,0.475,0.495,0.47,0.475,0.47,0.485,0.455,0.485,0.48,0.485,0.495,0.515,0.51]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237622","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-8-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 8, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 8","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":0.7,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:24Z","end_date":"2026-10-09T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":75.0278,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-8-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.485,0.495,0.48,0.515,0.505,0.505,0.495,0.47,0.5]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237624","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-10-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 10","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":0.86,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:26Z","end_date":"2026-10-11T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":107.1829,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T04:04:36.988292Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T04:04:36.988292Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-10-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.485,0.505,0.495,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.505,0.5]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237627","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-13-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 13, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 13","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.495,0.505],"probability":0.495,"spread":0.83,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:26Z","end_date":"2026-10-14T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":123.5548,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T05:35:12.442157Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T05:35:12.442157Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-13-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.495,0.485,0.495,0.505,0.495,0.495]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237634","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-20-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 20","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.49,0.51],"probability":0.49,"spread":0.88,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-21T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":83.3146,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-20-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.48,0.505,0.47,0.485,0.475,0.485,0.48,0.485,0.47,0.485,0.495,0.475,0.5,0.495,0.49]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237638","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-24-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 24, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 24","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.485,0.515],"probability":0.485,"spread":0.89,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-25T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":82.8943,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-24-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.505,0.475,0.48,0.475,0.485,0.49,0.48,0.495,0.485]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237620","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-6-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 6, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 6","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.48,0.52],"probability":0.48,"spread":0.64,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:24Z","end_date":"2026-10-07T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":52.1294,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-6-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.535,0.52,0.535,0.51,0.525,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.465,0.48]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237630","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-16-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 16, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 16","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.475,0.525],"probability":0.475,"spread":0.91,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-17T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":76.7446,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-16-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.5,0.48,0.495,0.475,0.495,0.5,0.505,0.485,0.475,0.505,0.485,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.475]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237641","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-27-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 27","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.475,0.525],"probability":0.475,"spread":0.91,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-28T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.025000000000000022,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":80.2438,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-27-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.495,0.475,0.48,0.48,0.485,0.485,0.475]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237643","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-29-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 29, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 29","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.475,0.525],"probability":0.475,"spread":0.91,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:30Z","end_date":"2026-10-30T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":80.2441,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-29-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.5,0.495,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.505,0.475,0.495,0.49,0.475,0.475,0.47,0.475,0.475]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237645","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-31-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.475,0.525],"probability":0.475,"spread":0.91,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:30Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":80.2444,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-31-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.5,0.505,0.5,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.485,0.48,0.5,0.475,0.475,0.48,0.475,0.475,0.475]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237632","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-18-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 18","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.92,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-19T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.025000000000000022,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":76.7445,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-18-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.5,0.48,0.485,0.485,0.515,0.485,0.49,0.48,0.485,0.49,0.51,0.475,0.485,0.49,0.485,0.47]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237633","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-19-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 19","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.92,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-20T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.025000000000000022,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":81.0145,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-19-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.48,0.5,0.495,0.51,0.485,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.475,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237635","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-21-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 21, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 21","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.92,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-22T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.025000000000000022,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":76.7448,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-21-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.505,0.5,0.485,0.48,0.485,0.465,0.51,0.505,0.505,0.5,0.495,0.5,0.47]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237636","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-22-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 22","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.9,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-23T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.025000000000000022,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":80.291,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-22-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.485,0.505,0.49,0.475,0.495,0.475,0.485,0.475,0.5,0.47]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237637","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-23-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 23, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 23","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.9,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-24T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.025000000000000022,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":81.4645,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-23-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.505,0.47,0.48,0.485,0.505,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.505,0.475,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.485,0.475,0.47]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237631","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-17-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 17","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.465,0.535],"probability":0.465,"spread":0.91,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-18T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.02999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":81.5438,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-17-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.48,0.49,0.505,0.495,0.5,0.51,0.485,0.48,0.475,0.495,0.485,0.495,0.49,0.485,0.48,0.465]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237639","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-25-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 25, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 25","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.46,0.54],"probability":0.46,"spread":0.88,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-26T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.03999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":82.744,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-25-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.495,0.48,0.48,0.475,0.475,0.46]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237640","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-26-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 26, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 26","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.46,0.54],"probability":0.46,"spread":0.88,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:28Z","end_date":"2026-10-27T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.034999999999999976,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":83.1441,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-26-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.505,0.48,0.475,0.465,0.485,0.46]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237642","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-28-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 28, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 28","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.46,0.54],"probability":0.46,"spread":0.88,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:30Z","end_date":"2026-10-29T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.03999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":83.144,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-28-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.505,0.5,0.475,0.48,0.475,0.48,0.505,0.475,0.48,0.5,0.475,0.48,0.465,0.465,0.46]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5237644","event_id":"1124896","slug":"will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-30-2026","question":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nMilitary action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.\n\nA military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/st+basil's+target.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.46,0.54],"probability":0.46,"spread":0.88,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T15:37:30Z","end_date":"2026-10-31T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.03999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":81.3821,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:58:35.395402Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T15:49:56.118026Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-2026/will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-30-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.475,0.485,0.475,0.465,0.46]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1124896","as_of":"2026-10-04T08:11:01.043619Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?\" — top market at 84% probability across 29 outcomes","source_url":null}}