{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1149140","as_of":"2026-10-07T23:47:05.643362Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Gemini Argon released by...?\" — 2 markets; highest \"November 30\" at 97% as of 2026-10-07 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1149140","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-argon-released-byptptpt"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1149140","ticker":"gemini-argon-released-byptptpt","slug":"gemini-argon-released-byptptpt","title":"Gemini Argon released by...?","description":"On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google releases \"Gemini Argon\" or a model qualifying under the terms below, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny model whose official name includes \"Argon,\" or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-07T16:53:09Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4620.580352,"volume_24hr":4670.580352,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.519636154174805,"normalized_volume":16.181272506713867,"liquidity":1054.06347,"open_interest":1986.9503519999998,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"106297","slug":"argon","label":"Argon"},{"id":"1410","slug":"gemini","label":"Gemini"},{"id":"663","slug":"google","label":"google"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 30","top_outcome_probability":0.9655,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.05049999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":720.853225,"updated_at":"2026-10-07T23:39:44.727821Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-07T23:39:44.727821Z","added_at":"2026-10-07T17:17:51.147690Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-argon-released-byptptpt","chart_24h":[113.0,351.013225,1507.873225,3125.8403519999997,3305.8403519999997,3989.660352,4282.650352,4572.650352,4670.580352],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":2,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5408227","event_id":"1149140","slug":"gemini-argon-released-by-november-30-2026","question":"Gemini Argon released by November 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 30","description":"On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google releases \"Gemini Argon\" or a model qualifying under the terms below, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny model whose official name includes \"Argon,\" or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.9655,0.0345],"probability":0.9655,"spread":0.049,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-07T16:53:09Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":761.8532250000001,"volume_24hr":761.853225,"prob_24h_change":0.05049999999999999,"volume_24h_change":720.853225,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.02725601196289,"normalized_volume":12.924103736877441,"liquidity":309.76487,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-07T22:10:46.327165Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-07T22:10:46.327165Z","added_at":"2026-10-07T17:17:51.222085Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-argon-released-byptptpt/gemini-argon-released-by-november-30-2026","event_title":"Gemini Argon released by...?","chart_24h":[0.915,0.975,0.97,0.953,0.965,0.9655,0.9655]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5408226","event_id":"1149140","slug":"gemini-argon-released-by-october-31-2026","question":"Gemini Argon released by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google releases \"Gemini Argon\" or a model qualifying under the terms below, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny model whose official name includes \"Argon,\" or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.885,0.115],"probability":0.885,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-07T16:53:09Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":3858.727127,"volume_24hr":3908.727127,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":3735.727127,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.103456497192383,"normalized_volume":20.009441375732422,"liquidity":757.9586,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-07T23:39:44.779723Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-07T23:39:44.779723Z","added_at":"2026-10-07T17:17:51.222085Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-argon-released-byptptpt/gemini-argon-released-by-october-31-2026","event_title":"Gemini Argon released by...?","chart_24h":[0.875,0.87,0.895,0.945,0.93,0.935,0.935,0.905,0.885]}]}