{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1159514","as_of":"2026-10-10T22:06:02.590525Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?\" — 2 markets; highest \"November 30\" at 70% as of 2026-10-10 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1159514","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-byptptpt"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1159514","ticker":"moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-byptptpt","slug":"moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-byptptpt","title":"Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve \"Yes.\" A downgrade by both agencies is not required.\n\nFor purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies.\n\nA change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify.\n\nRating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings), together with the Agence France Trésor published ratings page (https://www.aft.gouv.fr/en/frances-credit-ratings); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-byptptpt-6jsx8ZFqP_ko.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-byptptpt-6jsx8ZFqP_ko.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T15:02:06Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3139.810469,"volume_24hr":2761.924315,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":25.636001586914062,"normalized_volume":14.731569290161133,"liquidity":1324.2522,"open_interest":1837.290448,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 30","top_outcome_probability":0.7,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.039999999999999925,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":995.4044450000001,"updated_at":"2026-10-10T21:56:16.423318Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-10T21:56:16.423318Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T15:10:47.290460Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-byptptpt","chart_24h":[377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,377.886154,397.886154,1037.880599,1037.880599,1037.880599,1647.3305990000001,1687.330599,2193.684116,2269.837962,2467.98574,2473.070486,2696.070486,2696.070486,2656.070486,2656.070486,2761.924315],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":2,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5458390","event_id":"1159514","slug":"moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-by-november-30-2026","question":"Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve \"Yes.\" A downgrade by both agencies is not required.\n\nFor purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies.\n\nA change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify.\n\nRating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings), together with the Agence France Trésor published ratings page (https://www.aft.gouv.fr/en/frances-credit-ratings); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.7,0.3],"probability":0.7,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T15:02:06Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1623.484445,"volume_24hr":1309.444445,"prob_24h_change":0.039999999999999925,"volume_24h_change":995.4044450000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.38006019592285,"normalized_volume":16.035526275634766,"liquidity":821.4106,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-10-10T21:56:17.592722Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-10T21:56:17.592722Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T15:10:47.331654Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-byptptpt/moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-by-november-30-2026","event_title":"Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?","chart_24h":[0.665,0.675,0.65,0.655,0.675,0.685,0.68,0.685,0.69,0.58,0.585,0.72,0.695,0.655,0.75,0.75,0.755,0.745,0.715,0.725,0.705,0.7]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5458389","event_id":"1159514","slug":"moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-by-october-31-2026","question":"Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve \"Yes.\" A downgrade by both agencies is not required.\n\nFor purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies.\n\nA change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify.\n\nRating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings), together with the Agence France Trésor published ratings page (https://www.aft.gouv.fr/en/frances-credit-ratings); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.46,0.54],"probability":0.46,"spread":0.3,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T15:02:06Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1516.3260240000002,"volume_24hr":1452.47987,"prob_24h_change":-0.02999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":1388.6337159999998,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.030696868896484,"normalized_volume":15.740859985351562,"liquidity":501.8013,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-10-10T21:56:17.592722Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-10T21:56:17.592722Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T15:10:47.331654Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-byptptpt/moodys-or-sp-downgrades-france-by-october-31-2026","event_title":"Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?","chart_24h":[0.45,0.45,0.455,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.385,0.585,0.705,0.66,0.505,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.545,0.46]}]}