{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1167043","as_of":"2026-10-12T12:28:55.962491Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Panama Canal effectively closed by...?\" — 4 markets; highest \"December 31\" at 6% as of 2026-10-12 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1167043","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1167043","ticker":"panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt","slug":"panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt","title":"Panama Canal effectively closed by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt-VodCfw9nql6b.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt-VodCfw9nql6b.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-10T21:21:36Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":380.292744,"volume_24hr":178.190041,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.477029800415039,"normalized_volume":8.025551795959473,"liquidity":26137.78793,"open_interest":345.252703,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"738","slug":"yemen","label":"Yemen"},{"id":"102107","slug":"houthi","label":"houthi"},{"id":"582","slug":"houthis","label":"Houthis"},{"id":"749","slug":"red-sea","label":"red sea"},{"id":"104136","slug":"traffic","label":"traffic"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"583","slug":"shipping","label":"shipping"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"},{"id":"104235","slug":"cape-of-good-hope","label":"cape of good hope"},{"id":"104009","slug":"regional-spillover","label":"Regional Spillover"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.065,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.05,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2.702703,"updated_at":"2026-10-12T12:17:10.572689Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-12T12:17:10.572689Z","added_at":"2026-10-10T21:33:36.716697Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt","chart_24h":[202.102703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,290.252703,236.252703,88.15,88.15,88.15,88.15,88.15,88.15,88.15,88.15,88.15,138.15,138.15,138.15,178.190041,178.190041,178.190041,178.190041],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":4,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5522522","event_id":"1167043","slug":"panama-canal-effectively-closed-by-november-30","question":"Panama Canal effectively closed by November 30?","group_item_title":"November 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-10T21:21:36Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":50.0,"volume_24hr":50.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.045000000000000005,"volume_24h_change":50.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.20046854019165,"normalized_volume":4.535620212554932,"liquidity":11604.9529,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Panama"],"updated_at":"2026-10-12T07:32:24.467057Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-12T07:32:24.467057Z","added_at":"2026-10-10T21:33:36.752289Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt/panama-canal-effectively-closed-by-november-30","event_title":"Panama Canal effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.085,0.085,0.08,0.055,0.05,0.04]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5522521","event_id":"1167043","slug":"panama-canal-effectively-closed-by-october-31","question":"Panama Canal effectively closed by October 31?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.014,0.986],"probability":0.014,"spread":0.012,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-10T21:21:36Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":145.15,"volume_24hr":88.15,"prob_24h_change":-0.0105,"volume_24h_change":16.150000000000006,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.08705997467041,"normalized_volume":7.289783954620361,"liquidity":12232.8898,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Panama"],"updated_at":"2026-10-12T10:17:30.869417Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-12T10:17:30.869417Z","added_at":"2026-10-10T21:33:36.752289Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt/panama-canal-effectively-closed-by-october-31","event_title":"Panama Canal effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.0245,0.035,0.031,0.032,0.0325,0.0335,0.029,0.029,0.0285,0.028,0.029,0.028,0.028,0.0285,0.028,0.028,0.0285,0.0285,0.028,0.0285,0.028,0.028,0.024,0.0125,0.0135,0.014]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5522520","event_id":"1167043","slug":"panama-canal-effectively-closed-by-october-15","question":"Panama Canal effectively closed by October 15?","group_item_title":"October 15","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0055,0.9945],"probability":0.0055,"spread":0.009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-10T21:21:36Z","end_date":"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":182.440041,"volume_24hr":40.040041,"prob_24h_change":-0.001,"volume_24h_change":-48.359959,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.534112930297852,"normalized_volume":7.969633102416992,"liquidity":11398.61355,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Panama"],"updated_at":"2026-10-12T09:54:30.410589Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-12T09:54:30.410589Z","added_at":"2026-10-10T21:33:36.752289Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt/panama-canal-effectively-closed-by-october-15","event_title":"Panama Canal effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.0065,0.0065,0.006,0.0055]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5522523","event_id":"1167043","slug":"panama-canal-effectively-closed-by-december-31","question":"Panama Canal effectively closed by December 31?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.065,0.935],"probability":0.065,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-10T21:21:36Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2.702703,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.05,"volume_24h_change":-2.702703,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.5027700066566467,"liquidity":1220.7135,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Panama"],"updated_at":"2026-10-12T11:07:03.367578Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-12T11:07:03.367578Z","added_at":"2026-10-10T21:33:36.752289Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt/panama-canal-effectively-closed-by-december-31","event_title":"Panama Canal effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.115,0.115,0.13,0.12,0.115,0.105,0.08,0.085,0.085,0.075,0.085,0.08,0.08,0.075,0.085,0.075,0.055,0.06,0.065,0.06,0.06,0.065]}]}