{"source":"polymarket","id":"117916","ticker":"which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","slug":"which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-deepseek-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-Nnc7HNoIsfjN.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-deepseek-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-Nnc7HNoIsfjN.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0055,0.9945],"probability":0.0055,"spread":0.005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:19.516498Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":282606.1492880004,"volume_24hr":454.14,"prob_24h_change":-0.001,"volume_24h_change":394.14,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.611082077026367,"normalized_volume":43.67081832885742,"liquidity":12041.8768,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T07:40:41.002739Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T07:38:03.921571Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-deepseek-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.0055]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"996333","event_id":"117916","slug":"will-zai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","question":"Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?","group_item_title":"Z.ai","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-zai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30-54_xwa-bPaO3.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-zai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30-54_xwa-bPaO3.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.004,0.996],"probability":0.004,"spread":0.002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:21.619458Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17441.470492000008,"volume_24hr":2235.9919999999997,"prob_24h_change":-0.0004999999999999996,"volume_24h_change":2231.9779999999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.02615737915039,"normalized_volume":26.44057273864746,"liquidity":8648.90638,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T00:56:47.801784Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T00:54:26.717744Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-zai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.0045,0.0045,0.004,0.0035,0.004]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"996331","event_id":"117916","slug":"will-nvidia-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","question":"Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?","group_item_title":"Nvidia","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-nvidia-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-k20QjScJNuO_.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-nvidia-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-k20QjScJNuO_.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0035,0.9965],"probability":0.0035,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:19.770669Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7236.905511,"volume_24hr":301.003008,"prob_24h_change":-0.0025,"volume_24h_change":301.003008,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.977472305297852,"normalized_volume":21.892597198486328,"liquidity":3994.60074,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T09:05:13.602806Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-20T22:32:38.264228Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-nvidia-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.0065,0.0065,0.0065,0.006,0.0065,0.006,0.0065,0.006,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"996332","event_id":"117916","slug":"will-baidu-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","question":"Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?","group_item_title":"Baidu","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-baidu-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30-GeJByIKNpwuQ.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-baidu-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30-GeJByIKNpwuQ.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0035,0.9965],"probability":0.0035,"spread":0.003,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:22.127278Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9394.618242,"volume_24hr":2168.517,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":22.20199999999977,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.867427825927734,"normalized_volume":23.196935653686523,"liquidity":15106.8753,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:40:36.488548Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:37:40.228160Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-baidu-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.0035,0.003,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"996329","event_id":"117916","slug":"will-mistral-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","question":"Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?","group_item_title":"Mistral","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-mistral-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-56BSNk5exKNy.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-mistral-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-56BSNk5exKNy.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.003,0.997],"probability":0.003,"spread":0.002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:23.435461Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15303.248715,"volume_24hr":1151.7955,"prob_24h_change":-0.002,"volume_24h_change":1149.7855,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.731510162353516,"normalized_volume":25.737224578857422,"liquidity":8077.53113,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:12:12.070431Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:09:16.359377Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-mistral-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.005,0.005,0.005,0.0035,0.0035,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"996334","event_id":"117916","slug":"will-meituan-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","question":"Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?","group_item_title":"Meituan","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-meituan-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30-cBJSug9eYIlU.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-meituan-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30-cBJSug9eYIlU.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.003,0.997],"probability":0.003,"spread":0.002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:22.380736Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4399.598408000001,"volume_24hr":21.401,"prob_24h_change":0.001,"volume_24h_change":21.401,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.2541277408599854,"normalized_volume":19.509679794311523,"liquidity":4783.32621,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:40:36.488548Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:37:40.228160Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-meituan-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.002,0.003,0.003,0.003,0.003]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"996326","event_id":"117916","slug":"will-xai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","question":"Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?","group_item_title":"xAI","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-xai-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-UA92SrySodxO.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-xai-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-UA92SrySodxO.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0025,0.9975],"probability":0.0025,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:19.261323Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":577934.4827429997,"volume_24hr":1841.6705,"prob_24h_change":-0.0045000000000000005,"volume_24h_change":1838.6505,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.031827926635742,"normalized_volume":48.79082107543945,"liquidity":14090.28991,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:12:12.070431Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:09:16.359377Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-xai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"996328","event_id":"117916","slug":"will-meta-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","question":"Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?","group_item_title":"Meta","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-meta-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-nThccMwmRucP.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-meta-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-nThccMwmRucP.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0025,0.9975],"probability":0.0025,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:21.364843Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":24188.254958,"volume_24hr":3023.7625,"prob_24h_change":-0.0055,"volume_24h_change":3023.7625,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.623502731323242,"normalized_volume":28.240741729736328,"liquidity":10510.53484,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:12:12.070431Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:09:16.359377Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-meta-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.0075,0.008,0.0075,0.0075,0.008,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0025,0.0025]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"996330","event_id":"117916","slug":"will-alibaba-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","question":"Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?","group_item_title":"Alibaba","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-alibaba-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-qJ35urvAW_t3.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-alibaba-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-qJ35urvAW_t3.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0025,0.9975],"probability":0.0025,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:24.197084Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17563.68724100001,"volume_24hr":1539.174515,"prob_24h_change":-0.004,"volume_24h_change":1539.174515,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.134870529174805,"normalized_volume":26.478391647338867,"liquidity":7438.97792,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:12:12.070431Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:09:16.359377Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-alibaba-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.0065,0.0065,0.007,0.007,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"996327","event_id":"117916","slug":"will-anthropic-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","question":"Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?","group_item_title":"Anthropic","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-anthropic-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-CqEyCpgms5_i.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-anthropic-have-a-1-ai-model-this-year-CqEyCpgms5_i.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-12-22T22:32:20.024817Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-02-06T21:11:59Z","volume":257970.563525,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.0384521484375,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30/will-anthropic-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30","event_title":"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/117916","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:03:13.174954Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?\" — top market at 0% probability across 11 outcomes","source_url":null}}