{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1185818","as_of":"2026-10-19T10:37:53.268216Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)\" — \"0-3 points behind\" leads at 32% across 5 outcomes as of 2026-10-19 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1185818","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/troy-jackson-runs-behind-hannah-pingree-by-first-round"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1185818","ticker":"troy-jackson-runs-behind-hannah-pingree-by-first-round","slug":"troy-jackson-runs-behind-hannah-pingree-by-first-round","title":"Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)","description":"The 2026 Maine general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Maine, and Hannah Pingree is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Maine.\n\nThis market will resolve based on how many percentage points Troy Jackson’s vote share in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election falls below Hannah Pingree’s vote share in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.\n\nEach candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.\n\nIf the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”\n\nIf either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/maine-31b36d7c50.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/maine-31b36d7c50.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-14T01:22:06Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4677.43022,"volume_24hr":631.328972,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.44826889038086,"normalized_volume":16.221792221069336,"liquidity":23593.4861,"open_interest":1506.36434,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"814","slug":"maine","label":"maine"},{"id":"100199","slug":"senate-elections","label":"Senate"},{"id":"103840","slug":"midterm","label":"midterm"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"105886","slug":"troy-jackson","label":"Troy Jackson"},{"id":"105973","slug":"hannah-pingree","label":"Hannah Pingree"},{"id":"100686","slug":"margin-of-victory","label":"Margin of Victory"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"0-3 points behind","top_outcome_probability":0.315,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.12000000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-19T10:37:10.655118Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-19T10:37:10.655118Z","added_at":"2026-10-14T01:29:41.138227Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/troy-jackson-runs-behind-hannah-pingree-by-first-round","chart_24h":[425.84,572.197143,476.197143,470.197143,470.197143,490.197143,431.997143,411.997143,411.997143,411.997143,411.997143,287.357143,287.357143,287.357143,287.357143,287.357143,287.357143,287.357143,287.357143,287.357143,287.357143,287.357143,357.357143,357.357143,357.357143,458.013799,458.013799,631.328972,631.328972,631.328972,631.328972,631.328972,631.328972],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":5,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5676492","event_id":"1185818","slug":"will-troy-jackson-run-0-to-3-points-behind-hannah-pingree","question":"Will Troy Jackson run 0 to 3 points behind Hannah Pingree?","group_item_title":"0-3 points behind","description":"The 2026 Maine general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Maine, and Hannah Pingree is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Maine.\n\nThis market will resolve based on how many percentage points Troy Jackson’s vote share in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election falls below Hannah Pingree’s vote share in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.\n\nEach candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.\n\nIf the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”\n\nIf either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.315,0.685],"probability":0.315,"spread":0.15,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-14T01:22:06Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":350.96253,"volume_24hr":41.0,"prob_24h_change":0.12000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":1.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.226766586303711,"normalized_volume":10.087085723876953,"liquidity":371.8906,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-19T10:37:10.974318Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-19T10:37:10.974318Z","added_at":"2026-10-14T01:29:41.206025Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/troy-jackson-runs-behind-hannah-pingree-by-first-round/will-troy-jackson-run-0-to-3-points-behind-hannah-pingree","event_title":"Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? 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If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.\n\nEach candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.\n\nIf the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”\n\nIf either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-14T01:22:06Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":729.758719,"volume_24hr":343.971829,"prob_24h_change":0.11999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":265.771829,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.775321960449219,"normalized_volume":12.75724983215332,"liquidity":10244.8011,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-19T10:37:10.974318Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-19T10:37:10.974318Z","added_at":"2026-10-14T01:29:41.206025Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/troy-jackson-runs-behind-hannah-pingree-by-first-round/will-troy-jackson-run-6-to-9-points-behind-hannah-pingree","event_title":"Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? 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If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.\n\nEach candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.\n\nIf the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”\n\nIf either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.22,0.78],"probability":0.22,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-14T01:22:06Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":811.992403,"volume_24hr":166.357143,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.808289527893066,"normalized_volume":13.173202514648438,"liquidity":538.3016,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-19T10:37:10.974318Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-19T10:37:10.974318Z","added_at":"2026-10-14T01:29:41.206025Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/troy-jackson-runs-behind-hannah-pingree-by-first-round/will-troy-jackson-run-ahead-of-hannah-pingree","event_title":"Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? 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If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.\n\nEach candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.\n\nIf the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”\n\nIf either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"","icon":"","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.055,0.945],"probability":0.055,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-14T01:22:06Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2188.314643,"volume_24hr":80.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":-51.639999999999986,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.225038528442383,"normalized_volume":17.356121063232422,"liquidity":12125.2621,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-19T10:15:59.718259Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-19T10:15:59.718259Z","added_at":"2026-10-14T01:29:41.206025Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/troy-jackson-runs-behind-hannah-pingree-by-first-round/will-troy-jackson-run-9-or-more-points-behind-hannah-pingree","event_title":"Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? 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If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.\n\nEach candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.\n\nIf the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. 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