{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1194539","as_of":"2026-10-15T22:12:51.537930Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How strong will Champi be?\" — \"Violent\" leads at 55% across 4 outcomes as of 2026-10-15 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1194539","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-intensity-will-champi-reach"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1194539","ticker":"what-intensity-will-champi-reach","slug":"what-intensity-will-champi-reach","title":"How strong will Champi be?","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Champi. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Champi in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If JMA never assigns Champi an intensity class, this market will resolve to \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\". JMA's own bounds: \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), \"Strong\" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), \"Very strong\" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and \"Violent\" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.\n\nJMA states the intensity class in the \"Intensity\" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's \"Grade\", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades \"TY\". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Champi will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Champi by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used.\n\nRevisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution.\n\nIf JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Champi (JMA typhoon number 2630) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the \"Intensity\" field. Past positions for T2630 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202630.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but it does not state the Intensity class; it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind instead therefore, Maximum Wind will be used when referencing the archive.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-15T15:03:34Z","end_date":"2026-10-30T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5666.546684,"volume_24hr":5686.546684000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.467248916625977,"normalized_volume":16.967670440673828,"liquidity":2794.64648,"open_interest":706.698038,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"105882","slug":"typhoon","label":"Typhoon"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"102023","slug":"hurricane","label":"hurricane"},{"id":"85","slug":"hurricanes","label":"Hurricanes"},{"id":"106381","slug":"typhoon-champi","label":"Typhoon Champi"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Violent","top_outcome_probability":0.545,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.04500000000000004,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":339.780181,"updated_at":"2026-10-15T22:04:47.468729Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-15T22:04:47.468729Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:21:49.768414Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-intensity-will-champi-reach","chart_24h":[0.0,20.0,40.0,73.513514,4503.5994900000005,5196.226684000001,5559.856684000001,5646.546684000001,5686.546684000001],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":4,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5733399","event_id":"1194539","slug":"will-champi-peak-as-a-violent-typhoon","question":"Will Champi peak as a Violent typhoon?","group_item_title":"Violent","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Champi. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Champi in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If JMA never assigns Champi an intensity class, this market will resolve to \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\". JMA's own bounds: \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), \"Strong\" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), \"Very strong\" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and \"Violent\" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.\n\nJMA states the intensity class in the \"Intensity\" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's \"Grade\", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades \"TY\". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Champi will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Champi by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used.\n\nRevisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution.\n\nIf JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Champi (JMA typhoon number 2630) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the \"Intensity\" field. Past positions for T2630 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202630.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but it does not state the Intensity class; it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind instead therefore, Maximum Wind will be used when referencing the archive. ","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.545,0.455],"probability":0.545,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-15T15:03:34Z","end_date":"2026-10-30T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":319.78018099999997,"volume_24hr":339.780181,"prob_24h_change":0.04500000000000004,"volume_24h_change":339.780181,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.075675010681152,"normalized_volume":9.770428657531738,"liquidity":833.201,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-15T22:04:47.526245Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-15T22:04:47.526245Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:21:49.849715Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-intensity-will-champi-reach/will-champi-peak-as-a-violent-typhoon","event_title":"How strong will Champi be?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.755,0.855,0.6,0.585,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.545]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5733398","event_id":"1194539","slug":"will-champi-peak-as-a-very-strong-typhoon","question":"Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?","group_item_title":"Very strong","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Champi. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Champi in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If JMA never assigns Champi an intensity class, this market will resolve to \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\". JMA's own bounds: \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), \"Strong\" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), \"Very strong\" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and \"Violent\" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.\n\nJMA states the intensity class in the \"Intensity\" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's \"Grade\", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades \"TY\". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Champi will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Champi by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used.\n\nRevisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution.\n\nIf JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Champi (JMA typhoon number 2630) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the \"Intensity\" field. Past positions for T2630 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202630.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but it does not state the Intensity class; it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind instead therefore, Maximum Wind will be used when referencing the archive. ","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.36,0.64],"probability":0.36,"spread":0.16,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-15T15:03:34Z","end_date":"2026-10-30T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":402.97,"volume_24hr":402.97,"prob_24h_change":-0.14500000000000002,"volume_24h_change":402.97,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.908855438232422,"normalized_volume":10.5668306350708,"liquidity":423.7649,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-15T22:04:47.526245Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-15T22:04:47.526245Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:21:49.849715Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-intensity-will-champi-reach/will-champi-peak-as-a-very-strong-typhoon","event_title":"How strong will Champi be?","chart_24h":[0.505,0.265,0.27,0.285,0.27,0.345,0.275,0.295,0.36]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5733397","event_id":"1194539","slug":"will-champi-peak-as-a-strong-typhoon","question":"Will Champi peak as a Strong typhoon?","group_item_title":"Strong","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Champi. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Champi in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If JMA never assigns Champi an intensity class, this market will resolve to \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\". JMA's own bounds: \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), \"Strong\" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), \"Very strong\" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and \"Violent\" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.\n\nJMA states the intensity class in the \"Intensity\" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's \"Grade\", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades \"TY\". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Champi will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Champi by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used.\n\nRevisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution.\n\nIf JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Champi (JMA typhoon number 2630) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the \"Intensity\" field. Past positions for T2630 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202630.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but it does not state the Intensity class; it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind instead therefore, Maximum Wind will be used when referencing the archive. ","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0855,0.9145],"probability":0.0855,"spread":0.069,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-15T15:03:34Z","end_date":"2026-10-30T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":4726.266503,"volume_24hr":4726.266503000002,"prob_24h_change":-0.4095,"volume_24h_change":4726.266503000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.634775161743164,"normalized_volume":21.004003524780273,"liquidity":1067.32729,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-15T21:14:24.890112Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-15T21:14:24.890112Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:21:49.849715Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-intensity-will-champi-reach/will-champi-peak-as-a-strong-typhoon","event_title":"How strong will Champi be?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.255,0.035,0.142,0.13,0.119,0.0855]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5733396","event_id":"1194539","slug":"will-champi-peak-at-severe-tropical-storm-or-weaker","question":"Will Champi peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker?","group_item_title":"Severe tropical storm or weaker","description":"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Champi. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Champi in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If JMA never assigns Champi an intensity class, this market will resolve to \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\". JMA's own bounds: \"Severe tropical storm or weaker\" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), \"Strong\" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), \"Very strong\" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and \"Violent\" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.\n\nJMA states the intensity class in the \"Intensity\" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's \"Grade\", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades \"TY\". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Champi will not be considered for resolution.\n\nThis market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Champi by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used.\n\nRevisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Champi will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution.\n\nIf JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered.\n\nRevisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the analyses published by JMA for Champi (JMA typhoon number 2630) at https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en, specifically the intensity class stated in the \"Intensity\" field. Past positions for T2630 can be viewed at https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/202630.html.en, where each Daily Satellite Image opens a page giving the position recorded at that time. That archive republishes JMA's own track data and is maintained by the National Institute of Informatics, but it does not state the Intensity class; it shows Central Pressure and Maximum Wind instead therefore, Maximum Wind will be used when referencing the archive. ","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-category-will-hurricane-imelda-reach-4K4KXHqKhcbw.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.034,0.966],"probability":0.034,"spread":0.066,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-15T15:03:34Z","end_date":"2026-10-30T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":217.53000000000003,"volume_24hr":217.53,"prob_24h_change":-0.46099999999999997,"volume_24h_change":217.53,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.0123872756958,"normalized_volume":8.513924598693848,"liquidity":303.12284,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-15T22:04:47.526245Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-15T22:04:47.526245Z","added_at":"2026-10-15T15:21:49.849715Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-intensity-will-champi-reach/will-champi-peak-at-severe-tropical-storm-or-weaker","event_title":"How strong will Champi be?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.245,0.25,0.135,0.11,0.075,0.035,0.0405,0.034]}]}