{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1211834","as_of":"2026-10-18T19:42:59.777276Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?\" — 3 markets; highest \"December 31\" at 7% as of 2026-10-18 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1211834","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1211834","ticker":"france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt","slug":"france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt","title":"France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTo count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a \"state of siege\" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).\n\nOnly declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.\n\nA declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.\n\nA declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to \"martial law\", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-18T14:00:21Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42900.765877,"volume_24hr":49169.861611,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.21513366699219,"normalized_volume":25.845155715942383,"liquidity":63396.28685,"open_interest":19491.374944,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"1378","slug":"france","label":"France"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100349","slug":"protests","label":"Protests"},{"id":"106387","slug":"france-riots","label":"France Riots"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.0735,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.4265,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":22688.107296,"updated_at":"2026-10-18T19:21:35.617193Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-18T19:21:35.617193Z","added_at":"2026-10-18T14:06:56.776115Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt","chart_24h":[0.0,233.33,426.66,1882.8496420000001,13861.540697,13990.790697,14172.040697,14465.973425],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":3,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5880857","event_id":"1211834","slug":"france-declares-state-of-siege-by-december-31-2026","question":"France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTo count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a \"state of siege\" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).\n\nOnly declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.\n\nA declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.\n\nA declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to \"martial law\", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0735,0.9265],"probability":0.0735,"spread":0.027,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-18T14:00:21Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":23789.357296000002,"volume_24hr":22688.107296,"prob_24h_change":-0.4265,"volume_24h_change":22688.107296,"normalized_vol_24hr":37.53721618652344,"normalized_volume":29.79296875,"liquidity":13530.33671,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-10-18T19:21:35.717699Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-18T19:21:35.717699Z","added_at":"2026-10-18T14:06:56.862961Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt/france-declares-state-of-siege-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.142,0.1135,0.0905,0.038,0.038,0.038,0.027]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5880852","event_id":"1211834","slug":"france-declares-state-of-siege-by-november-15-2026","question":"France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 15","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTo count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a \"state of siege\" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).\n\nOnly declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.\n\nA declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.\n\nA declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to \"martial law\", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0205,0.9795],"probability":0.0205,"spread":0.005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-18T14:00:21Z","end_date":"2026-11-16T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":18811.786988,"volume_24hr":16845.381952,"prob_24h_change":-0.4795,"volume_24h_change":16845.381952,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.34156799316406,"normalized_volume":28.42108726501465,"liquidity":24123.15611,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-10-18T19:21:35.717699Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-18T19:21:35.717699Z","added_at":"2026-10-18T14:06:56.862961Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt/france-declares-state-of-siege-by-november-15-2026","event_title":"France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.1355,0.0555,0.0555,0.0165,0.0225,0.022]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5880847","event_id":"1211834","slug":"france-declares-state-of-siege-by-october-31-2026","question":"France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"October 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTo count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a \"state of siege\" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense).\n\nOnly declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify.\n\nA declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.\n\nA declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to \"martial law\", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/paris-curfew-by-DUjbwhNELlln.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.009,0.991],"probability":0.009,"spread":0.004,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-18T14:00:21Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":9636.372362999999,"volume_24hr":9636.372363,"prob_24h_change":-0.486,"volume_24h_change":9636.372363,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.401641845703125,"normalized_volume":24.6893253326416,"liquidity":26500.54599,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["France"],"updated_at":"2026-10-18T19:21:35.717699Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-18T19:21:35.717699Z","added_at":"2026-10-18T14:06:56.862961Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/france-declares-state-of-siege-byptptpt/france-declares-state-of-siege-by-october-31-2026","event_title":"France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.03,0.0565,0.0355,0.0115,0.011,0.0115,0.01]}]}