{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1274180","as_of":"2026-10-29T05:11:08.878786Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"When will Gemini Carbon be released?\" — \"November 9–November 15\" leads at 22% across 11 outcomes as of 2026-10-29 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1274180","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1274180","ticker":"when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027","slug":"when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027","title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2027-01-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":320.019884,"volume_24hr":320.019884,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.804818153381348,"normalized_volume":7.564387798309326,"liquidity":2612.8337,"open_interest":219.80358,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"1410","slug":"gemini","label":"Gemini"},{"id":"663","slug":"google","label":"google"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 9–November 15","top_outcome_probability":0.22,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.28,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":20.02,"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.716506Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.716506Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.252886Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027","chart_24h":[0.0,100.06,144.675377,144.675377,164.675377,194.675377,305.019884,305.019884,320.019884],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":11,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365364","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-9-and-november-15-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 9–November 15","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.22,0.78],"probability":0.22,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-11-16T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":20.02,"volume_24hr":20.02,"prob_24h_change":-0.28,"volume_24h_change":20.02,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.725304126739502,"normalized_volume":2.7211852073669434,"liquidity":244.5925,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-9-and-november-15-2026","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.21,0.115,0.205,0.175,0.195,0.18,0.235,0.22]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365430","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-30-and-december-6-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 30–December 6","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-12-07T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":40.0,"volume_24hr":40.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.31,"volume_24h_change":40.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.539053440093994,"normalized_volume":4.046056270599365,"liquidity":221.5145,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-30-and-december-6-2026","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.205,0.215,0.165,0.165,0.245,0.165,0.19]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365467","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-december-28-2026-and-january-3-2027","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 28, 2026 and January 3, 2027?","group_item_title":"December 28–January 3","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2027-01-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":40.0,"volume_24hr":40.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.315,"volume_24h_change":40.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.539053440093994,"normalized_volume":4.046056270599365,"liquidity":238.0814,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-december-28-2026-and-january-3-2027","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.505,0.215,0.205,0.17,0.145,0.19,0.205,0.19]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365475","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-there-be-no-gemini-carbon-release-by-january-3-2027","question":"Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by January 3, 2027?","group_item_title":"No release by January 3","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":0.1,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2027-01-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":159.959884,"volume_24hr":159.959884,"prob_24h_change":-0.295,"volume_24h_change":159.959884,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.369952201843262,"normalized_volume":7.574833869934082,"liquidity":226.4837,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-there-be-no-gemini-carbon-release-by-january-3-2027","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.485,0.235,0.205,0.215,0.215,0.235,0.35,0.29,0.19]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365395","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-23-and-november-29-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 23–November 29","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.165,0.835],"probability":0.165,"spread":0.21,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-11-30T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":40.019999999999996,"volume_24hr":40.019999999999996,"prob_24h_change":-0.33499999999999996,"volume_24h_change":40.019999999999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.540508270263672,"normalized_volume":4.047119140625,"liquidity":236.3442,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-23-and-november-29-2026","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.13,0.245,0.11,0.23,0.225,0.23,0.155,0.165]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365348","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-2-and-november-8-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 2–November 8","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-11-09T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":20.02,"volume_24hr":20.02,"prob_24h_change":-0.375,"volume_24h_change":20.02,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.725304126739502,"normalized_volume":2.7211852073669434,"liquidity":309.603,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-2-and-november-8-2026","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.215,0.205,0.2,0.175,0.185,0.14,0.165,0.125]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365340","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-prior-to-november-2-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released prior to November 2, 2026?","group_item_title":"Prior to November 2","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.145,0.855],"probability":0.145,"spread":0.23,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.35,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":293.8146,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:54:29.792572Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:54:29.792572Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-prior-to-november-2-2026","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.495,0.205,0.205,0.155,0.17,0.165,0.145]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365441","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-december-7-and-december-13-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 7 and December 13, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 7–December 13","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.14,0.86],"probability":0.14,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-12-14T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.36,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":219.6896,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-december-7-and-december-13-2026","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.215,0.205,0.175,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.14]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365377","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-16-and-november-22-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 16–November 22","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-11-23T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.375,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":216.4477,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-november-16-and-november-22-2026","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.505,0.215,0.205,0.17,0.365,0.205,0.165,0.13]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365449","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-december-14-and-december-20-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 14–December 20","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-12-21T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.37,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":197.4075,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-december-14-and-december-20-2026","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.21,0.205,0.155,0.175,0.165,0.165,0.13]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6365457","event_id":"1274180","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-december-21-and-december-27-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 21 and December 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 21–December 27","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.21,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T21:53:07Z","end_date":"2026-12-28T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.38,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":225.776,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:45.832646Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T21:57:53.321966Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released-20261027/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-between-december-21-and-december-27-2026","event_title":"When will Gemini Carbon be released?","chart_24h":[0.505,0.21,0.205,0.155,0.13,0.195,0.155,0.125]}]}