{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1274293","as_of":"2026-10-29T05:10:24.054517Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Gemini Carbon released on...?\" — \"November 24\" leads at 14% across 32 outcomes as of 2026-10-29 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1274293","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1274293","ticker":"gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028","slug":"gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028","title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3447.608036,"volume_24hr":3204.808036,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.095169067382812,"normalized_volume":15.067996978759766,"liquidity":11169.85445,"open_interest":743.4514710000001,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"1410","slug":"gemini","label":"Gemini"},{"id":"663","slug":"google","label":"google"},{"id":"105579","slug":"ai-releases","label":"AI Releases"},{"id":"106541","slug":"gemini-carbon","label":"Gemini Carbon"},{"id":"106540","slug":"gemini-4-carbon","label":"Gemini 4 Carbon"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 24","top_outcome_probability":0.135,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.21999999999999997,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":72.8,"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:47.735999Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:47.735999Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:46.299460Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028","chart_24h":[310.0,310.0,350.0,450.0,1590.204,3162.808036,3162.808036,3204.808036],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":32,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366839","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-24-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 24, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 24","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.135,0.865],"probability":0.135,"spread":0.25,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-25T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":82.8,"volume_24hr":82.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.21999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":72.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.876839637756348,"normalized_volume":5.7537150382995605,"liquidity":262.1198,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-24-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.15,0.085,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.135]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366819","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-4-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 4, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 4","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-05T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.22499999999999998,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":322.5654,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-4-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.14,0.085,0.245,0.14,0.09,0.13]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366844","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-29-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 29, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 29","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.22,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-30T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":82.8,"volume_24hr":82.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.22499999999999998,"volume_24h_change":72.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.876839637756348,"normalized_volume":5.7537150382995605,"liquidity":269.8194,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-29-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.15,0.085,0.195,0.085,0.09,0.13]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366846","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-there-be-no-gemini-carbon-release-by-november-30-2026","question":"Will there be no Gemini Carbon release by November 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"No release by November 30","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":220.396786,"volume_24hr":220.396786,"prob_24h_change":-0.05499999999999999,"volume_24h_change":210.396786,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.712035179138184,"normalized_volume":8.555171012878418,"liquidity":455.0489,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:29:40.593319Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:29:40.593319Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-there-be-no-gemini-carbon-release-by-november-30-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.155,0.23,0.13,0.13]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366843","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-28-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 28, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 28","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.086,0.914],"probability":0.086,"spread":0.128,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-29T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.099,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":231.64145,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-28-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.085,0.1,0.17,0.085,0.1785,0.086]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366825","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-10-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 10","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-11T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":147.8,"volume_24hr":147.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":137.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.051802635192871,"normalized_volume":7.342438220977783,"liquidity":341.6189,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-10-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.085,0.16,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366826","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-11-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 11","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-12T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":159.8698,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-11-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.15,0.085,0.04,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366829","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-14-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 14, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 14","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-15T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":103.2877,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T02:35:19.027647Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T02:35:19.027647Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-14-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.135,0.085,0.04,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366835","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-20-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 20, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 20","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-21T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":107.8,"volume_24hr":107.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.26999999999999996,"volume_24h_change":97.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.832975387573242,"normalized_volume":6.452134132385254,"liquidity":108.0298,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T02:35:19.027647Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T02:35:19.027647Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-20-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366836","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-21-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 21, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 21","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-22T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.851,"volume_24hr":87.851,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":77.851,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.086421966552734,"normalized_volume":5.906806468963623,"liquidity":359.3186,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-21-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.1,0.09,0.17,0.085,0.09,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366840","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-25-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 25, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 25","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-26T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.26999999999999996,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":497.4822,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-25-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.085,0.09,0.18,0.095,0.09,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366842","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-27-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 27, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 27","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-28T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":97.902,"volume_24hr":97.902,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":87.902,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.477314949035645,"normalized_volume":6.192337989807129,"liquidity":110.4118,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T02:35:19.027647Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T02:35:19.027647Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-27-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.155,0.09,0.205,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366845","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-30-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 30","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.13,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":97.902,"volume_24hr":97.902,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999999,"volume_24h_change":87.902,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.477314949035645,"normalized_volume":6.192337989807129,"liquidity":180.7518,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-30-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.1,0.085,0.17,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366815","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-or-prior-to-october-31-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on or prior to October 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"On or prior to October 31","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":147.8,"volume_24hr":147.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.27499999999999997,"volume_24h_change":137.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.051802635192871,"normalized_volume":7.342438220977783,"liquidity":422.2225,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:54:32.059160Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:54:32.059160Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-or-prior-to-october-31-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.15,0.13,0.455,0.085,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366817","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-2-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 2, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 2","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-03T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.105,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":189.3598,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-2-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.15,0.09,0.195,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366818","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-3-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 3, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 3","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":105.95625,"volume_24hr":105.95625,"prob_24h_change":-0.105,"volume_24h_change":95.95625,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.768707275390625,"normalized_volume":6.40518856048584,"liquidity":174.5513,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-3-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366820","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-5-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 5, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 5","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-06T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.105,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":201.9218,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:29:40.593319Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:29:40.593319Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-5-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.205,0.1,0.12,0.24,0.085,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366827","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-12-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 12, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 12","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-13T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.27499999999999997,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":210.4994,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:29:40.593319Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:29:40.593319Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-12-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.095,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366828","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-13-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 13, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 13","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-14T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":77.8,"volume_24hr":77.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.27499999999999997,"volume_24h_change":67.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.65950870513916,"normalized_volume":5.594963550567627,"liquidity":195.7598,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-13-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366831","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-16-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 16, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 16","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-17T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":77.8,"volume_24hr":77.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.105,"volume_24h_change":67.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.65950870513916,"normalized_volume":5.594963550567627,"liquidity":106.9898,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T02:35:19.027647Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T02:35:19.027647Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-16-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.1,0.085,0.09,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366832","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-17-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 17, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 17","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-18T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":82.8,"volume_24hr":82.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.105,"volume_24h_change":72.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.876839637756348,"normalized_volume":5.7537150382995605,"liquidity":290.8199,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-17-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.105,0.105,0.04,0.085,0.145,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366833","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-18-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 18, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 18","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-19T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.27499999999999997,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":169.0892,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-18-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.15,0.085,0.195,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366834","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-19-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 19, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 19","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.14,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-20T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":82.8,"volume_24hr":82.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.105,"volume_24h_change":72.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.876839637756348,"normalized_volume":5.7537150382995605,"liquidity":268.8913,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-19-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.155,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.135,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366841","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-26-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 26, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 26","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-27T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":82.8,"volume_24hr":82.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.105,"volume_24h_change":72.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.876839637756348,"normalized_volume":5.7537150382995605,"liquidity":287.5188,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-26-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.135,0.085,0.4,0.085,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366838","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-23-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 23, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 23","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.07,0.93],"probability":0.07,"spread":0.12,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-24T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":77.8,"volume_24hr":77.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.285,"volume_24h_change":67.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.65950870513916,"normalized_volume":5.594963550567627,"liquidity":191.0595,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T03:01:22.002541Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-23-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.115,0.1,0.09,0.17,0.07]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366821","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-6-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 6, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 6","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.065,0.935],"probability":0.065,"spread":0.11,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-07T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":137.8,"volume_24hr":137.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.12,"volume_24h_change":127.80000000000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.774173736572266,"normalized_volume":7.139641761779785,"liquidity":376.3587,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-6-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.12,0.1,0.455,0.09,0.07,0.065]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366822","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-7-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 7, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 7","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.065,0.935],"probability":0.065,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-08T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":398.8,"volume_24hr":156.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.12,"volume_24h_change":156.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.26852798461914,"normalized_volume":10.530323028564453,"liquidity":369.1334,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-7-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.135,0.12,0.11,0.135,0.065,0.065]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366823","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-8-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 8, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 8","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.06,0.94],"probability":0.06,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-09T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.125,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":457.4796,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-8-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.075,0.155,0.12,0.04,0.085,0.06,0.06]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366837","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-22-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 22","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.055,0.945],"probability":0.055,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-23T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.13,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":601.352,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:46:50.012535Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-22-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.13,0.06,0.055]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366816","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-1-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 1, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 1","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.95],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.305,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":382.9117,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-1-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.355,0.075,0.105,0.085,0.18,0.08,0.05,0.05]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366830","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-15-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 15","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.05,0.95],"probability":0.05,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-16T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":108.8,"volume_24hr":108.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.135,"volume_24h_change":98.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.867475509643555,"normalized_volume":6.477334499359131,"liquidity":328.6396,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-15-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.085,0.09,0.205,0.085,0.045,0.05]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6366824","event_id":"1274293","slug":"will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-9-2026","question":"Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 9","description":"On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed \"Carbon,\" separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which \"Carbon\", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.\n\nA qualifying model must be a Google AI model named \"Carbon\" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed \"Carbon\", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/gemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-28T22:20:41Z","end_date":"2026-11-10T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":87.8,"volume_24hr":87.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.145,"volume_24h_change":77.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.084352493286133,"normalized_volume":5.905294895172119,"liquidity":222.1333,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T04:22:00.916050Z","added_at":"2026-10-28T22:24:47.471453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-onptptpt-20261028/will-gemini-carbon-be-released-on-november-9-2026","event_title":"Gemini Carbon released on...?","chart_24h":[0.185,0.115,0.13,0.085,0.04,0.13,0.08,0.04]}]}