{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1283500","as_of":"2026-11-01T11:23:05.224227Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?\" — \"1st hottest\" leads at 84% across 4 outcomes as of 2026-11-01 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1283500","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1283500","ticker":"november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record","slug":"november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record","title":"November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.\n\nNote: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T14:35:30Z","end_date":"2026-12-29T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3371.493633,"volume_24hr":2857.7536330000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.516033172607422,"normalized_volume":14.984641075134277,"liquidity":5197.8213,"open_interest":1178.084233,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"832","slug":"global-temp","label":"Global Temp"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"1st hottest","top_outcome_probability":0.84,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.03500000000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":475.6,"updated_at":"2026-11-01T11:00:33.155807Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T11:00:33.155807Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T14:54:31.456153Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record","chart_24h":[548.74,548.74,548.74,548.74,608.74,608.74,608.74,608.74,1347.093633,1367.093633,1367.093633,1387.093633,1595.093633,1595.093633,1615.093633,1615.093633,1615.093633,1615.093633,1528.093633,2277.493633,2277.493633,2277.493633,2277.493633,2277.493633,2277.493633,2969.153633,2909.753633,2857.7536330000003,2857.7536330000003],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":4,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422298","event_id":"1283500","slug":"will-november-2026-be-the-1st-hottest-on-record","question":"Will November 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?","group_item_title":"1st hottest","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.\n\nNote: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.84,0.16],"probability":0.84,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T14:35:30Z","end_date":"2026-12-29T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1177.4,"volume_24hr":844.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.03500000000000003,"volume_24h_change":475.6,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.407529830932617,"normalized_volume":14.673104286193848,"liquidity":1185.9017,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T09:49:40.324017Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T09:49:40.324017Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T14:54:31.488782Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record/will-november-2026-be-the-1st-hottest-on-record","event_title":"November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","chart_24h":[0.875,0.88,0.885,0.875,0.665,0.67,0.665,0.645,0.705,0.73,0.76,0.725,0.725,0.835,0.84,0.845,0.845,0.84,0.84]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422299","event_id":"1283500","slug":"will-november-2026-be-the-2nd-hottest-on-record","question":"Will November 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?","group_item_title":"2nd hottest","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.\n\nNote: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T14:35:30Z","end_date":"2026-12-29T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1626.153633,"volume_24hr":1596.1536330000001,"prob_24h_change":-0.22999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":1566.1536330000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.04958724975586,"normalized_volume":16.04265022277832,"liquidity":1700.1162,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T10:12:45.653001Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T10:12:45.653001Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T14:54:31.488782Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record/will-november-2026-be-the-2nd-hottest-on-record","event_title":"November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","chart_24h":[0.36,0.365,0.245,0.27,0.1,0.075,0.12,0.125,0.075,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.155,0.155,0.16,0.095,0.105,0.11,0.105,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422301","event_id":"1283500","slug":"will-november-2026-be-the-4th-or-lower-on-record","question":"Will November 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?","group_item_title":"4th or lower ","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.\n\nNote: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.025,0.975],"probability":0.025,"spread":0.048,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T14:35:30Z","end_date":"2026-12-29T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":284.14,"volume_24hr":163.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.38499999999999995,"volume_24h_change":43.46000000000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.561052322387695,"normalized_volume":9.375687599182129,"liquidity":988.27118,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T08:35:42.773994Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T08:35:42.773994Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T14:54:31.488782Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record/will-november-2026-be-the-4th-or-lower-on-record","event_title":"November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","chart_24h":[0.41,0.275,0.125,0.27,0.26,0.37,0.225,0.265,0.215,0.045,0.036,0.0345,0.025]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422300","event_id":"1283500","slug":"will-november-2026-be-the-3rd-hottest-on-record","question":"Will November 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?","group_item_title":"3rd hottest","description":"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.\n\nNote: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/earth+on+fire.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0045,0.9955],"probability":0.0045,"spread":0.003,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T14:35:30Z","end_date":"2026-12-29T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":283.8,"volume_24hr":253.8,"prob_24h_change":-0.3655,"volume_24h_change":223.8,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.441015243530273,"normalized_volume":9.37173080444336,"liquidity":1212.81216,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-01T08:59:46.410494Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-01T08:59:46.410494Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T14:54:31.488782Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record/will-november-2026-be-the-3rd-hottest-on-record","event_title":"November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?","chart_24h":[0.37,0.365,0.29,0.235,0.245,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.055,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.0305,0.0035,0.0035,0.0045]}]}