{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1283624","as_of":"2026-10-31T00:23:46.621057Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)\" — \"<1.35ºC\" leads at 50% across 6 outcomes as of 2026-10-30 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1283624","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-temperature-increase-c"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1283624","ticker":"november-2026-temperature-increase-c","slug":"november-2026-temperature-increase-c","title":"November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Nov\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T15:08:58Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5000.0,"volume_24hr":5000.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.71238899230957,"normalized_volume":16.473554611206055,"liquidity":516.5097,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"832","slug":"global-temp","label":"Global Temp"},{"id":"104615","slug":"temperature","label":"temperature"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"<1.35ºC","top_outcome_probability":0.495,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2000.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T23:56:18.504948Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-30T23:56:18.504948Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T15:20:45.209930Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-temperature-increase-c","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0,5000.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":6,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422866","event_id":"1283624","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-less-than-1pt35c-in-november-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by less than 1.35ºC in November 2026?","group_item_title":"<1.35ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Nov\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.495,0.505],"probability":0.495,"spread":0.81,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T15:08:58Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2000.0,"volume_24hr":2000.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":2000.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.50996971130371,"normalized_volume":16.952573776245117,"liquidity":78.5356,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-30T23:56:18.552940Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-30T23:56:18.552940Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T15:20:45.257604Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-temperature-increase-c/will-global-temperature-increase-by-less-than-1pt35c-in-november-2026","event_title":"November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.495,0.495,0.49]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422868","event_id":"1283624","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt40c-and-1pt44c-in-november-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in November 2026?","group_item_title":"1.40–1.44ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Nov\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.49,0.51],"probability":0.49,"spread":0.76,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T15:08:58Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":3000.0,"volume_24hr":3000.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":3000.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.193340301513672,"normalized_volume":18.80855369567871,"liquidity":88.3037,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-30T23:56:18.552940Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-30T23:56:18.552940Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T15:20:45.257604Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-temperature-increase-c/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt40c-and-1pt44c-in-november-2026","event_title":"November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.49]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422867","event_id":"1283624","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt35c-and-1pt39c-in-november-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in November 2026?","group_item_title":"1.35–1.39ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Nov\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":0.78,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T15:08:58Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":86.8201,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-30T23:29:50.631026Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-30T23:29:50.631026Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T15:20:45.257604Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-temperature-increase-c/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt35c-and-1pt39c-in-november-2026","event_title":"November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.5,0.25,0.5,0.35,0.45,0.425,0.425,0.4]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422869","event_id":"1283624","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt45c-and-1pt49c-in-november-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in November 2026?","group_item_title":"1.45–1.49ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Nov\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":0.78,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T15:08:58Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":90.8501,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-30T23:56:18.552940Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-30T23:56:18.552940Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T15:20:45.257604Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-temperature-increase-c/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt45c-and-1pt49c-in-november-2026","event_title":"November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.5,0.25,0.5,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.415]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422870","event_id":"1283624","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt50c-and-1pt54c-in-november-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by between 1.50ºC and 1.54ºC in November 2026?","group_item_title":"1.50–1.54ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Nov\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":0.78,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T15:08:58Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":84.0601,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-30T23:29:50.631026Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-30T23:29:50.631026Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T15:20:45.257604Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-temperature-increase-c/will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt50c-and-1pt54c-in-november-2026","event_title":"November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.5,0.465,0.44,0.435,0.4]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6422871","event_id":"1283624","slug":"will-global-temperature-increase-by-more-than-1pt54c-in-november-2026","question":"Will global temperature increase by more than 1.54ºC in November 2026?","group_item_title":">1.54ºC","description":"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Nov\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA's \"Global Temperature Index\" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\n\nIf no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":0.78,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T15:08:58Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.09999999999999998,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":86.3201,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-30T23:29:50.631026Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-30T23:29:50.631026Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T15:20:45.257604Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/november-2026-temperature-increase-c/will-global-temperature-increase-by-more-than-1pt54c-in-november-2026","event_title":"November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)","chart_24h":[0.5,0.47,0.45,0.435,0.4]}]}