{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1284739","as_of":"2026-11-03T13:23:24.458147Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?\" — \"November 15 - 30, 2026\" leads at 28% across 5 outcomes as of 2026-11-03 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1284739","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1284739","ticker":"when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels","slug":"when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels","title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\" If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T19:53:17Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":513.611,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.84805965423584,"liquidity":1169.3821,"open_interest":269.519126,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"},{"id":"100244","slug":"germany","label":"Germany"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"},{"id":"496","slug":"natural-disasters","label":"Natural Disasters"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"November 15 - 30, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.285,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.030000000000000027,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-11-03T13:20:54.305889Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T13:20:54.305889Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T20:01:34.467994Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels","chart_24h":[183.45,183.45,83.45,83.45,83.45,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":5,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"6433565","event_id":"1284739","slug":"will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-november-15-and-november-30-2026","question":"Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between November 15 and November 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 15 - 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\" If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.285,0.715],"probability":0.285,"spread":0.35,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T19:53:17Z","end_date":"2026-11-30T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":31.2141,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.030000000000000027,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.53760027885437,"liquidity":179.6421,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T12:07:21.292230Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T12:07:21.292230Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T20:01:34.608151Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-november-15-and-november-30-2026","event_title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.315,0.305,0.3,0.285]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6433567","event_id":"1284739","slug":"will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-december-1-and-december-15-2026","question":"Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between December 1 and December 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 1 - 15, 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\" If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.255,0.745],"probability":0.255,"spread":0.29,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T19:53:17Z","end_date":"2026-12-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":25.955550000000002,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.1837964057922363,"liquidity":184.9106,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T12:07:21.292230Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T12:07:21.292230Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T20:01:34.608151Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-december-1-and-december-15-2026","event_title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6433563","event_id":"1284739","slug":"will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-before-november-15-2026","question":"Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before November 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before November 15, 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\" If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.24,0.76],"probability":0.24,"spread":0.34,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T19:53:17Z","end_date":"2026-11-15T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":187.003237,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.10500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.044955253601074,"liquidity":140.8659,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T13:20:55.079182Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T13:20:55.079182Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T20:01:34.608151Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-before-november-15-2026","event_title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.145,0.235,0.275,0.27,0.275,0.27,0.25]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6433569","event_id":"1284739","slug":"will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-december-16-and-december-31-2026","question":"Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between December 16 and December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 16 - 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\" If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.225,0.775],"probability":0.225,"spread":0.23,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T19:53:17Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":28.457469000000003,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.024999999999999994,"volume_24h_change":-2.5,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.357675313949585,"liquidity":185.6699,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T12:07:21.292230Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T12:07:21.292230Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T20:01:34.608151Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-december-16-and-december-31-2026","event_title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.25,0.24,0.24,0.225]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6433571","event_id":"1284739","slug":"will-the-rhine-river-fail-to-return-to-normal-levels-before-january-1-2027","question":"Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before January 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"No return before January 1, 2027","description":"This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.\n\nA reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.\n\nIf readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\" If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to \"No return before January 1, 2027.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-1786402709329-WtG3gkEgPuRE.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.195,0.805],"probability":0.195,"spread":0.29,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-30T19:53:17Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":240.98064399999998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":-100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.839183807373047,"liquidity":472.9295,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T12:57:32.413217Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T12:57:32.413217Z","added_at":"2026-10-30T20:01:34.608151Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-rhine-river-fail-to-return-to-normal-levels-before-january-1-2027","event_title":"When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.2,0.2,0.195,0.2,0.195,0.2,0.21,0.205,0.21,0.2]}]}