{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1301594","as_of":"2026-11-03T12:32:02.818711Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"When will the Danube River return to normal levels?\" — \"Does not return by January 1, 2027\" leads at 50% across 5 outcomes as of 2026-11-03 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1301594","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1301594","ticker":"when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels","slug":"when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels","title":"When will the Danube River return to normal levels?","description":"This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.  \n\n\"Does not return by January 1, 2027\" resolves \"Yes\" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after January 1, 2027 does not affect resolution.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.\n\nThe bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves \"Yes\"; all other brackets resolve \"No\". All dates and times in this market refer to Eastern Time (ET).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-02T15:01:14Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2781.74732,"volume_24hr":2781.74732,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.28110122680664,"normalized_volume":14.278457641601562,"liquidity":2819.5643,"open_interest":730.108584,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"100410","slug":"europe","label":"Europe"},{"id":"105721","slug":"drought","label":"Drought"},{"id":"101272","slug":"hungary","label":"Hungary"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"},{"id":"496","slug":"natural-disasters","label":"Natural Disasters"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Does not return by January 1, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":730.5072100000001,"updated_at":"2026-11-03T12:09:35.696292Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T12:09:35.696292Z","added_at":"2026-11-02T15:08:22.815279Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels","chart_24h":[0.0,95.73465,235.56465,373.20464999999996,373.20464999999996,373.20464999999996,469.61465,469.61465,469.61465,469.61465,469.61465,469.61465,469.61465,469.61465,469.61465,874.783186,1433.15572,1944.17572,1944.17572,2029.17572,2029.17572,2423.27572,2700.16732,2734.74732,2734.74732,2781.74732],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":true,"markets_total":5,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"6581046","event_id":"1301594","slug":"will-the-danube-river-fail-to-return-to-normal-levels-by-january-1-2027","question":"Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by January 1, 2027?","group_item_title":"Does not return by January 1, 2027","description":"This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.  \n\n\"Does not return by January 1, 2027\" resolves \"Yes\" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after January 1, 2027 does not affect resolution.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.\n\nThe bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves \"Yes\"; all other brackets resolve \"No\". All dates and times in this market refer to Eastern Time (ET).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-02T15:01:14Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":730.50721,"volume_24hr":730.5072100000001,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":730.5072100000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.087831497192383,"normalized_volume":12.761211395263672,"liquidity":428.2255,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T11:21:00.107941Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T11:21:00.107941Z","added_at":"2026-11-02T15:08:22.909453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-danube-river-fail-to-return-to-normal-levels-by-january-1-2027","event_title":"When will the Danube River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.525,0.515,0.52,0.53,0.505,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.4,0.55,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.465,0.52,0.515,0.515,0.5]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6581042","event_id":"1301594","slug":"will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-december-16-and-december-31-2026","question":"Will the Danube River return to normal levels between December 16 and December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 16 - 31, 2026","description":"This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.  \n\n\"Does not return by January 1, 2027\" resolves \"Yes\" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after January 1, 2027 does not affect resolution.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.\n\nThe bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves \"Yes\"; all other brackets resolve \"No\". All dates and times in this market refer to Eastern Time (ET).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.175,0.825],"probability":0.175,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-02T15:01:14Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":387.48,"volume_24hr":387.48,"prob_24h_change":-0.325,"volume_24h_change":387.48,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.782978057861328,"normalized_volume":10.429593086242676,"liquidity":665.966,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T11:44:36.148995Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T11:44:36.148995Z","added_at":"2026-11-02T15:08:22.909453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-december-16-and-december-31-2026","event_title":"When will the Danube River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.17,0.24,0.25,0.265,0.26,0.35,0.335,0.35,0.355,0.355,0.315,0.24,0.185,0.195,0.17,0.17,0.175,0.175,0.175]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6581026","event_id":"1301594","slug":"will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-before-november-15-2026","question":"Will the Danube River return to normal levels before November 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"Before November 15, 2026","description":"This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.  \n\n\"Does not return by January 1, 2027\" resolves \"Yes\" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after January 1, 2027 does not affect resolution.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.\n\nThe bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves \"Yes\"; all other brackets resolve \"No\". All dates and times in this market refer to Eastern Time (ET).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-02T15:01:14Z","end_date":"2026-11-16T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":850.338536,"volume_24hr":850.3385360000001,"prob_24h_change":-0.375,"volume_24h_change":850.3385360000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.92952537536621,"normalized_volume":13.3550386428833,"liquidity":737.5748,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T12:09:36.001491Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T12:09:36.001491Z","added_at":"2026-11-02T15:08:22.909453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-before-november-15-2026","event_title":"When will the Danube River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.385,0.345,0.305,0.345,0.335,0.24,0.265,0.335,0.32,0.37,0.315,0.31,0.15,0.245,0.27,0.22,0.235,0.14,0.125,0.125,0.13,0.135]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6581033","event_id":"1301594","slug":"will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-november-15-and-november-30-2026","question":"Will the Danube River return to normal levels between November 15 and November 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"November 15 - 30, 2026","description":"This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.  \n\n\"Does not return by January 1, 2027\" resolves \"Yes\" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after January 1, 2027 does not affect resolution.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.\n\nThe bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves \"Yes\"; all other brackets resolve \"No\". All dates and times in this market refer to Eastern Time (ET).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-02T15:01:14Z","end_date":"2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":478.80999999999995,"volume_24hr":478.81,"prob_24h_change":-0.375,"volume_24h_change":478.81,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.848575592041016,"normalized_volume":11.18138599395752,"liquidity":540.7035,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T07:38:51.729793Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T07:38:51.729793Z","added_at":"2026-11-02T15:08:22.909453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-november-15-and-november-30-2026","event_title":"When will the Danube River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.29,0.315,0.46,0.39,0.375,0.48,0.39,0.465,0.455,0.51,0.475,0.455,0.175,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.125]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6581038","event_id":"1301594","slug":"will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-december-1-and-december-15-2026","question":"Will the Danube River return to normal levels between December 1 and December 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 1 - 15, 2026","description":"This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines \"normal levels\" for this market.  \n\n\"Does not return by January 1, 2027\" resolves \"Yes\" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after January 1, 2027 does not affect resolution.\n\nThe resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.\n\nThe bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves \"Yes\"; all other brackets resolve \"No\". All dates and times in this market refer to Eastern Time (ET).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-the-danube-return-to-normal-levels-1786134932344-_O0QjuzIIs2P.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":0.14,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-02T15:01:14Z","end_date":"2026-12-16T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":334.611574,"volume_24hr":334.611574,"prob_24h_change":-0.4,"volume_24h_change":334.611574,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.066458702087402,"normalized_volume":9.924078941345215,"liquidity":581.0452,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-11-03T11:44:36.148995Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-03T11:44:36.148995Z","added_at":"2026-11-02T15:08:22.909453Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels/will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-between-december-1-and-december-15-2026","event_title":"When will the Danube River return to normal levels?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.55,0.47,0.445,0.395,0.375,0.23,0.225,0.265,0.26,0.24,0.245,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.125,0.08,0.07,0.1]}]}