{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1310394","as_of":"2026-11-04T06:12:41.413024Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?\" — 3 markets; highest \"↓ 2%\" at 57% as of 2026-11-04 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/1310394","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-by-december-31"},"source":"polymarket","id":"1310394","ticker":"carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-by-december-31","slug":"carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-by-december-31","title":"Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tucker Carlson's hourly odds value in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold (for a \"↑\" market) or is equal to or below the listed threshold (for a \"↓\" market) for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn hourly odds value is the value in the \"Odds of Happening\" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour \"Time Window (ET)\", as shown on the listing page and in the \"Odds History\" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which Tucker Carlson's hourly odds value is below the listed threshold (for a \"↑\" market) or above the listed threshold (for a \"↓\" market) ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values.\n\nHours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for Tucker Carlson (shown as \"NO_PRINT\") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Tucker Carlson in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing Tucker Carlson from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.\n\nIf no hourly odds values have been published for Tucker Carlson between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, a \"↑\" market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tucker Carlson is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to \"No\", and a \"↓\" market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tucker Carlson is not the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to \"No\".\n\nIf a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Tucker Carlson in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on Tucker Carlson's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-03T22:16:45Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":82.02,"volume_24hr":82.02,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.963435649871826,"normalized_volume":4.4326982498168945,"liquidity":10934.2988,"open_interest":81.019999,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"144","slug":"elections","label":"Elections"},{"id":"264","slug":"primaries","label":"Primaries"},{"id":"100418","slug":"derivatives","label":"Derivatives"},{"id":"1101","slug":"us-presidential-election","label":"US Election"},{"id":"165","slug":"united-states","label":"United States"},{"id":"106552","slug":"2028-election","label":"2028 Election"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"↓ 2%","top_outcome_probability":0.57,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.06999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":60.02,"updated_at":"2026-11-04T05:55:00.946976Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T05:55:00.946976Z","added_at":"2026-11-03T22:35:35.120563Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-by-december-31","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,82.02,82.02,82.02,82.02,82.02,82.02],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":3,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"6658600","event_id":"1310394","slug":"carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-dip-to-2-by-december-31","question":"Carlson's Republican nomination odds dip to 2% by December 31?","group_item_title":"↓ 2%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tucker Carlson's hourly odds value in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below 2% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn hourly odds value is the value in the \"Odds of Happening\" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour \"Time Window (ET)\", as shown on the listing page and in the \"Odds History\" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which Tucker Carlson's hourly odds value is above 2% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values.\n\nHours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for Tucker Carlson (shown as \"NO_PRINT\") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Tucker Carlson in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing Tucker Carlson from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.\n\nIf no hourly odds values have been published for Tucker Carlson between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tucker Carlson is not the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to \"No\".\n\nIf a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Tucker Carlson in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on Tucker Carlson's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.57,0.43],"probability":0.57,"spread":0.64,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-03T22:16:46Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":60.02,"volume_24hr":60.02,"prob_24h_change":0.06999999999999995,"volume_24h_change":60.02,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.474026679992676,"normalized_volume":4.95890474319458,"liquidity":37.9437,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T05:55:02.581565Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T05:55:02.581565Z","added_at":"2026-11-03T22:35:35.196881Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-by-december-31/carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-dip-to-2-by-december-31","event_title":"Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.505,0.59,0.585,0.43,0.585]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6658598","event_id":"1310394","slug":"carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-6-by-december-31","question":"Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit 6% by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 6%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tucker Carlson's hourly odds value in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds 6% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn hourly odds value is the value in the \"Odds of Happening\" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour \"Time Window (ET)\", as shown on the listing page and in the \"Odds History\" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which Tucker Carlson's hourly odds value is below 6% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values.\n\nHours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for Tucker Carlson (shown as \"NO_PRINT\") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Tucker Carlson in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing Tucker Carlson from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.\n\nIf no hourly odds values have been published for Tucker Carlson between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tucker Carlson is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to \"No\".\n\nIf a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Tucker Carlson in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on Tucker Carlson's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.065,0.935],"probability":0.065,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-03T22:16:45Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":22.0,"volume_24hr":22.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.435,"volume_24h_change":22.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.7657277584075928,"normalized_volume":2.8844313621520996,"liquidity":11629.8482,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T00:50:26.116662Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T00:50:26.116662Z","added_at":"2026-11-03T22:35:35.196881Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-by-december-31/carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-6-by-december-31","event_title":"Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.07,0.065,0.065]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6658599","event_id":"1310394","slug":"carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-5-by-december-31","question":"Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit 5% by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 5%","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tucker Carlson's hourly odds value in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds 5% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn hourly odds value is the value in the \"Odds of Happening\" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour \"Time Window (ET)\", as shown on the listing page and in the \"Odds History\" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which Tucker Carlson's hourly odds value is below 5% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values.\n\nHours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for Tucker Carlson (shown as \"NO_PRINT\") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Tucker Carlson in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing Tucker Carlson from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.\n\nIf no hourly odds values have been published for Tucker Carlson between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tucker Carlson is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to \"No\".\n\nIf a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Tucker Carlson in the \"2028 Republican Nomination\" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on Tucker Carlson's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/republicans+2028.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.51,0.49],"probability":0.51,"spread":0.88,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-03T22:16:46Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":18.4968,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T05:55:02.581565Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T05:55:02.581565Z","added_at":"2026-11-03T22:35:35.196881Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-by-december-31/carlsons-republican-nomination-odds-hit-5-by-december-31","event_title":"Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.465,0.48,0.475,0.47,0.51]}]}