{"source":"polymarket","id":"131397","ticker":"natural-disaster-in-2026","slug":"natural-disaster-in-2026","title":"Natural Disaster in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:\n\n- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US\n- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)\n- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)\n- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natural-disaster-in-2026-XCcDaLjjRFc0.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natural-disaster-in-2026-XCcDaLjjRFc0.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T19:10:49.756565Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":245811.48817099995,"volume_24hr":27.28,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.595493316650391,"normalized_volume":35.0515022277832,"liquidity":1795.6791,"open_interest":24383.589904,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"101337","slug":"parlays","label":"Parlays"},{"id":"102023","slug":"hurricane","label":"hurricane"},{"id":"425","slug":"nasa","label":"nasa"},{"id":"102182","slug":"astroid","label":"astroid"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"100184","slug":"earthquake","label":"earthquake"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"1325","slug":"space","label":"Space"},{"id":"101998","slug":"natural-disaster","label":"Natural Disaster"},{"id":"496","slug":"natural-disasters","label":"Natural Disasters"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.125,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-339.73493599999995,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T21:48:52.352575Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T21:48:52.352575Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/natural-disaster-in-2026","chart_24h":[367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,367.014936,360.40493599999996,360.40493599999996,360.40493599999996,360.40493599999996,360.40493599999996,360.40493599999996,360.40493599999996,380.40493599999996,380.40493599999996,380.40493599999996,380.40493599999996,27.28],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1058997","event_id":"131397","slug":"natural-disaster-in-2026","question":"Natural Disaster in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:\n\n- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US\n- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)\n- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)\n- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf\n","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natural-disaster-in-2026-XCcDaLjjRFc0.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natural-disaster-in-2026-XCcDaLjjRFc0.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T19:10:49.756565Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":245811.48817099995,"volume_24hr":27.28,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":-339.73493599999995,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.6443939208984375,"normalized_volume":45.201663970947266,"liquidity":1755.2901,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T21:28:38.141815Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T21:28:38.141815Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/natural-disaster-in-2026/natural-disaster-in-2026","event_title":"Natural Disaster in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.13,0.125,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.125,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.125,0.12,0.13]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/131397","as_of":"2026-09-08T21:53:37.084386Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Natural Disaster in 2026?\" — top market at 12% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}