{"source":"polymarket","id":"131397","ticker":"natural-disaster-in-2026","slug":"natural-disaster-in-2026","title":"Natural Disaster in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:\n\n- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US\n- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)\n- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)\n- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natural-disaster-in-2026-XCcDaLjjRFc0.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natural-disaster-in-2026-XCcDaLjjRFc0.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T19:10:49.756565Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":227164.13414899915,"volume_24hr":176.01000000000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.210128784179688,"normalized_volume":30.89706039428711,"liquidity":710.0509,"open_interest":18844.099786,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"101337","slug":"parlays","label":"Parlays"},{"id":"102023","slug":"hurricane","label":"hurricane"},{"id":"425","slug":"nasa","label":"nasa"},{"id":"102182","slug":"astroid","label":"astroid"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"100184","slug":"earthquake","label":"earthquake"},{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"87","slug":"climate","label":"climate"},{"id":"1325","slug":"space","label":"Space"},{"id":"101998","slug":"natural-disaster","label":"Natural Disaster"},{"id":"496","slug":"natural-disasters","label":"Natural Disasters"},{"id":"103037","slug":"climate-science","label":"Climate & Science"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.275,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4.963335000000029,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:52:35.446732Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:52:35.446732Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/natural-disaster-in-2026","chart_24h":[171.046665,171.046665,171.046665,171.046665,171.046665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,188.596665,347.056665,347.056665,347.056665,347.056665,347.056665,347.056665,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002,176.01000000000002],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1058997","event_id":"131397","slug":"natural-disaster-in-2026","question":"Natural Disaster in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:\n\n- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US\n- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)\n- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)\n- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf\n","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natural-disaster-in-2026-XCcDaLjjRFc0.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natural-disaster-in-2026-XCcDaLjjRFc0.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.275,0.725],"probability":0.275,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-31T19:10:49.756565Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":227164.13414899915,"volume_24hr":176.01000000000002,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":4.963335000000029,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.518133163452148,"normalized_volume":42.2416877746582,"liquidity":710.0509,"categories":["Science and Technology","Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:21:25.561698Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:15:52.268234Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/natural-disaster-in-2026/natural-disaster-in-2026","event_title":"Natural Disaster in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.275,0.275,0.275,0.275,0.275,0.275,0.275,0.28,0.28,0.275]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/131397","as_of":"2026-07-25T18:09:55.074523Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Natural Disaster in 2026?\" — top market at 28% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}