{"source":"polymarket","id":"131420","ticker":"megaquake-by-june-30","slug":"megaquake-by-june-30","title":"Megaquake by June 30?","description":"A \"megaquake\" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.\n\nAfter a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/megaquake-in-august-BR2e9f9Z8Omw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/megaquake-in-august-BR2e9f9Z8Omw.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-29T23:07:18.190430Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":78486.99454699997,"volume_24hr":612.015267,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.635862350463867,"normalized_volume":27.88941192626953,"liquidity":7938.925,"open_interest":33742.026217,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"101998","slug":"natural-disaster","label":"Natural Disaster"},{"id":"100184","slug":"earthquake","label":"earthquake"},{"id":"103038","slug":"earthquakes","label":"Earthquakes"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.075,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-963.5940309999999,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:56:10.397864Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:56:10.397864Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/megaquake-by-june-30","chart_24h":[1538.8197439999997,1589.8892979999998,1589.8892979999998,1589.8892979999998,1739.529298,1739.529298,1759.529298,1732.5292980000002,1716.7292980000002,1716.7292980000002,1741.7492980000004,1528.415966,1528.415966,1528.415966,1388.415966,1388.415966,1388.415966,931.0573829999998,1103.0573829999998,1103.0573829999998,1103.0573829999998,1102.327383,878.307383,878.307383,878.307383,878.307383,878.307383,625.355267,625.355267,625.355267,625.355267,625.355267,612.015267],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1059021","event_id":"131420","slug":"megaquake-by-june-30","question":"Megaquake by June 30?","group_item_title":null,"description":"A \"megaquake\" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.\n\nAfter a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/megaquake-in-august-BR2e9f9Z8Omw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/megaquake-in-august-BR2e9f9Z8Omw.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.075,0.925],"probability":0.075,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-29T23:01:30.281000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":78486.99454699997,"volume_24hr":612.015267,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-963.5940309999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.076051712036133,"normalized_volume":32.584049224853516,"liquidity":8094.3521,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:58:44.880245Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:01:28.485980Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/megaquake-by-june-30/megaquake-by-june-30","event_title":"Megaquake by June 30?","chart_24h":[0.075,0.075,0.065,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.065,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.075,0.07,0.075,0.075,0.07,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.07,0.07,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.075]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/131420","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:08:41.733470Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Megaquake by June 30?\" — top market at 8% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}