{"source":"polymarket","id":"138745","ticker":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:29:51.475000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":118420.320403,"volume_24hr":3020.2913630000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.905614852905273,"normalized_volume":27.71940803527832,"liquidity":20618.65887,"open_interest":16215.308495,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"105581","slug":"ai-benchmarks","label":"AI Benchmarks"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"663","slug":"google","label":"google"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"↑ 1510","top_outcome_probability":0.885,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.28,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":282.59,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T15:44:22.904754Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T15:44:22.904754Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","chart_24h":[599.471059,599.471059,2339.701059,2389.701059,2391.361059,2700.201059,2700.201059,2801.609507,2831.778517,2831.778517,2928.792422,2928.792422,3078.192422,3157.7674220000004,3047.487422,2986.487422,2965.487422,2965.487422,3020.8113630000003,3020.8113630000003,3020.8113630000003,3020.8113630000003,3020.8113630000003,3020.8113630000003,3020.8113630000003,3020.2913630000003,3020.2913630000003,3040.2913630000003,3040.2913630000003,3040.2913630000003,3040.2913630000003,3020.2913630000003,3020.2913630000003],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071799","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1510-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1510 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1510","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.885,0.115],"probability":0.885,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:00.506251Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":324.59,"volume_24hr":303.59,"prob_24h_change":0.28,"volume_24h_change":282.59,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.311517715454102,"normalized_volume":9.29556941986084,"liquidity":562.1003,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T13:35:23.152442Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T05:27:10.466224Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1510-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.67,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.835,0.84,0.84,0.845,0.865,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.885,0.885,0.885,0.885,0.885]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071801","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1530-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1530","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.32,0.68],"probability":0.32,"spread":0.52,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:20.345925Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":101.606059,"volume_24hr":20.0,"prob_24h_change":0.030000000000000027,"volume_24h_change":-61.606059,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.33931827545166,"normalized_volume":5.955298900604248,"liquidity":44.0384,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T15:44:23.563022Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T15:44:23.563022Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1530-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.44,0.37,0.35,0.295,0.32,0.33,0.335,0.32,0.335,0.335,0.335,0.355,0.36,0.35,0.295,0.32,0.335,0.335,0.335,0.33,0.315,0.315,0.355,0.355,0.315,0.315,0.315,0.315,0.33,0.33,0.31]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1087074","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1550-by-december-31-144-471-117","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1550","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.26,0.74],"probability":0.26,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:30:11.817000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":44405.62717900001,"volume_24hr":2447.511363,"prob_24h_change":0.07,"volume_24h_change":2447.511363,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.505754470825195,"normalized_volume":31.800485610961914,"liquidity":8025.9381,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T12:58:35.555464Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T08:15:58.740532Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1550-by-december-31-144-471-117","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.19,0.34,0.32,0.345,0.285,0.295,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.295,0.275,0.27,0.275,0.275,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071802","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1540-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1540","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.245,0.755],"probability":0.245,"spread":0.17,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:30.168293Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":521.305,"volume_24hr":181.44,"prob_24h_change":-0.165,"volume_24h_change":-158.425,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.690003395080566,"normalized_volume":10.87625503540039,"liquidity":338.134,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T15:44:23.563022Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T15:44:23.563022Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1540-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.38,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.175,0.215,0.205,0.215,0.23,0.205,0.235,0.225,0.215,0.25,0.215,0.245,0.225,0.225,0.24,0.225,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1370551","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1700-by-december-31-882-722-465","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1700","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.038,0.962],"probability":0.038,"spread":0.016,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-12T19:36:01.778000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8942.361359999999,"volume_24hr":67.75,"prob_24h_change":0.004499999999999997,"volume_24h_change":67.75,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.378412246704102,"normalized_volume":22.989463806152344,"liquidity":2256.44367,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T14:59:30.477591Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T14:22:28.485105Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1700-by-december-31-882-722-465","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.034,0.033,0.033,0.0335,0.0335,0.0335,0.0335,0.033,0.0405,0.041,0.042,0.0395,0.0395,0.039,0.0385,0.038,0.0385,0.038,0.0385,0.038,0.0385,0.038,0.038]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1087073","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1500-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1500","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:30:11.555000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-02-10T00:53:13Z","volume":33754.77836,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.19147491455078,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1500-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071800","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1520-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1520","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.7,0.3],"probability":0.7,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:35.585343Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":152.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":-152.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.027242183685303,"liquidity":150.8689,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T14:59:30.477591Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T14:07:31.940704Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1520-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1087075","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1600-by-december-31-569-131-613","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1600","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.105,0.895],"probability":0.105,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:29:51.475000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21668.038273000002,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.679046630859375,"liquidity":5801.0835,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T13:36:58.069939Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T13:28:55.673826Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1600-by-december-31-569-131-613","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1370549","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1650-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1650","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.075,0.925],"probability":0.075,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-12T19:35:59.690000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8550.014172,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.763320922851562,"liquidity":5693.9294,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T12:42:06.220936Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-21T19:28:11.683451Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1650-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.075,0.075]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/138745","as_of":"2026-07-25T15:44:53.040995Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?\" — top market at 26% probability across 9 outcomes","source_url":null}}