{"source":"polymarket","id":"138745","ticker":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). 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Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). 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If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1965,0.8035],"probability":0.1965,"spread":0.003,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:30.168293Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5025.4268680000005,"volume_24hr":85.414879,"prob_24h_change":-0.024999999999999994,"volume_24h_change":-157.581775,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.267647743225098,"normalized_volume":21.309762954711914,"liquidity":599.5208,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:09:53.701672Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:09:53.701672Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1540-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.2215,0.223,0.228,0.2295,0.1815,0.181,0.261,0.249,0.2445,0.231,0.211,0.207,0.207,0.207,0.2065,0.2065,0.206,0.2025,0.2015,0.201,0.2,0.201,0.2005,0.1995,0.2,0.1985,0.1985,0.1985,0.198,0.1975,0.1965,0.196,0.1965,0.1965]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1087074","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1550-by-december-31-144-471-117","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1550","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.175,0.825],"probability":0.175,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:30:11.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":52328.01046,"volume_24hr":255.097711,"prob_24h_change":0.03,"volume_24h_change":-45.955145000000016,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.786938667297363,"normalized_volume":34.6363525390625,"liquidity":699.3789,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:17.856634Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:17.856634Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1550-by-december-31-144-471-117","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.145,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.155,0.17,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1370549","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1650-by-december-31-661-819-419","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1650","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.045,0.955],"probability":0.045,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-12T19:35:59.690000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9196.154172,"volume_24hr":81.6,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.10107135772705,"normalized_volume":24.438297271728516,"liquidity":2044.9125,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:17.856634Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:17.856634Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1650-by-december-31-661-819-419","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045,0.045]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1087073","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1500-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1500","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:30:11.555000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-02-10T00:53:13Z","volume":33754.77836,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.897686004638672,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1500-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071799","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1510-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1510 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1510","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:00.506251Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-28T02:36:42Z","volume":2903.6749000000004,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.65559196472168,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-29T02:42:28.057967Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-29T00:52:40.966831Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1510-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071801","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1530-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1530","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.395,0.605],"probability":0.395,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:20.345925Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12407.767231000002,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-209.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.0685977935791,"liquidity":786.4782,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T02:16:39.765478Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T02:16:39.765478Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1530-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.395,0.395,0.395]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1087075","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1600-by-december-31-569-131-613","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1600","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.045,0.955],"probability":0.045,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:29:51.475000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25369.895854000006,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.174524307250977,"liquidity":2257.8037,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T00:23:26.283743Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T00:23:26.283743Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1600-by-december-31-569-131-613","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1370551","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1700-by-december-31-882-722-465","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1700","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0345,0.9655],"probability":0.0345,"spread":0.017,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-12T19:36:01.778000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9036.13136,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0005000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.34438705444336,"liquidity":1746.8577,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:02.377363Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T20:46:02.377363Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1700-by-december-31-882-722-465","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.034,0.0335,0.0345,0.0335,0.034,0.033,0.034,0.0345,0.035,0.0345,0.0335,0.0345]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/138745","as_of":"2026-09-08T23:00:33.518164Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?\" — top market at 94% probability across 9 outcomes","source_url":null}}