{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/138745","as_of":"2026-10-24T06:48:26.702836Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?\" — 9 markets; highest \"↑ 1540\" at 47% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/138745","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31"},"source":"polymarket","id":"138745","ticker":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","slug":"chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:29:51.475000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":224380.600462,"volume_24hr":49.049,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.340538024902344,"normalized_volume":34.4780387878418,"liquidity":3048.66607,"open_interest":17116.186434,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"105581","slug":"ai-benchmarks","label":"AI Benchmarks"},{"id":"101757","slug":"recurring","label":"Recurring"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"663","slug":"google","label":"google"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"↑ 1540","top_outcome_probability":0.4725,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.044999999999999984,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:27:27.784391Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:27:27.784391Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,16.85,16.85,28.62,28.62,28.62,28.62,28.62,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049,49.049],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":9,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1370549","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1650-by-december-31-661-819-419","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1650","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.038,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-12T19:35:59.690000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":9640.390583,"volume_24hr":11.77,"prob_24h_change":-0.0005000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":2.7759335041046143,"normalized_volume":24.69156837463379,"liquidity":504.43806,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:27:29.015899Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:27:29.015899Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1650-by-december-31-661-819-419","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.0405,0.0405,0.041,0.041,0.0405,0.0405,0.04,0.0425,0.04,0.042,0.043,0.04]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1370551","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1700-by-december-31-882-722-465","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1700","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.037,0.963],"probability":0.037,"spread":0.028,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-12T19:36:01.778000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":9338.393761,"volume_24hr":37.278999999999996,"prob_24h_change":0.0029999999999999957,"volume_24h_change":20.428999999999995,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.684458255767822,"normalized_volume":24.52055549621582,"liquidity":1615.5985,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:27:29.015899Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:27:29.015899Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1700-by-december-31-882-722-465","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.034,0.04,0.039,0.038,0.038,0.038,0.037,0.0375,0.036,0.0365,0.0385,0.0375,0.037,0.0375,0.036,0.0355,0.037,0.0405,0.04,0.037,0.036,0.0355,0.0355,0.0355,0.0355,0.037]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1087073","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1500-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1500","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:30:11.555000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-02-10T00:53:13Z","result":"yes","volume":33754.77836,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.897686004638672,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1500-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071799","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1510-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1510 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1510","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:00.506251Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-28T02:36:42Z","result":"yes","volume":2903.6749000000004,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.65559196472168,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-29T02:42:28.057967Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-29T00:52:40.966831Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1510-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071800","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1520-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1520","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:35.585343Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-09-18T00:31:09Z","result":"yes","volume":61261.49849700001,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.64854049682617,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-19T00:21:20.546634Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-19T00:21:20.546634Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1520-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071801","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1530-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1530","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:20.345925Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-01T02:22:56Z","result":"yes","volume":18993.064839000002,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.476497650146484,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T02:15:01.983704Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T02:15:01.983704Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1530-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"3071802","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1540-by-december-31","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1540","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.4725,0.5275],"probability":0.4725,"spread":0.259,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-23T21:40:30.168293Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":7153.409734,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.044999999999999984,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.111722946166992,"liquidity":375.60465,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T03:41:46.384727Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T03:41:46.384727Z","added_at":"2026-07-23T21:51:43.689098Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1540-by-december-31","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.5175,0.489,0.4925,0.501,0.491,0.4955,0.486,0.4705,0.4745,0.4695,0.4805,0.48,0.4705,0.48,0.471,0.471,0.4995,0.495,0.4745,0.4945,0.484,0.475,0.507,0.4725]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1087074","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1550-by-december-31-144-471-117","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1550","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.355,0.645],"probability":0.355,"spread":0.27,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:30:11.817000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":54518.934569,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.89834213256836,"liquidity":206.1882,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T04:53:41.766433Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T04:53:41.766433Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1550-by-december-31-144-471-117","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.37,0.385,0.35,0.355,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.345,0.31,0.325,0.33,0.355]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1087075","event_id":"138745","slug":"will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1600-by-december-31-569-131-613","question":"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?","group_item_title":"↑ 1600","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september-MmASwbTkwKHi.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1275,0.8725],"probability":0.1275,"spread":0.145,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-02T18:29:51.475000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":26816.455219,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.50539779663086,"liquidity":325.33836,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-23T21:56:17.892147Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T21:56:17.892147Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31/will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1600-by-december-31-569-131-613","event_title":"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.1275,0.1125,0.1275]}]}