{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/139550","as_of":"2026-10-24T09:09:11.481920Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?\" — 4 markets; highest \"June 30, 2027\" at 8% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/139550","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by"},"source":"polymarket","id":"139550","ticker":"will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by","slug":"will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by","title":"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.\n\nThe boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-Bk8VcDv-l22_.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-Bk8VcDv-l22_.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-05T21:18:53.725000Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":971323.9180379999,"volume_24hr":350.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.223865509033203,"normalized_volume":43.16642761230469,"liquidity":70516.43661,"open_interest":22161.69831,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"464","slug":"military-action","label":"Military Actions"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.08,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.024999999999999994,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T08:48:33.330869Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T08:48:33.330869Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0,350.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":4,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"5234679","event_id":"139550","slug":"will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2027","question":"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2027?","group_item_title":"June 30, 2027","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.\n\nThe boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2026-atOWkXn1rrer.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2026-atOWkXn1rrer.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.08,0.92],"probability":0.08,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-03T14:38:01Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":3447.035257,"volume_24hr":350.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.024999999999999994,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.713123321533203,"normalized_volume":19.466598510742188,"liquidity":31275.5996,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-23T19:33:55.588333Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T19:33:55.588333Z","added_at":"2026-10-03T14:52:41.262622Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2027","event_title":"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?","chart_24h":[0.105,0.1,0.085,0.08]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2246417","event_id":"139550","slug":"will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-december-31-2026","question":"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.\n\nThe boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2026-atOWkXn1rrer.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2026-atOWkXn1rrer.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.016,0.984],"probability":0.016,"spread":0.008,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-13T01:11:58.890603Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":226632.21466699996,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.61193084716797,"liquidity":39333.89192,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-23T16:00:58.414321Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T16:00:58.414321Z","added_at":"2026-05-13T01:11:40.432671Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1090494","event_id":"139550","slug":"will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"March 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of a municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within a municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this may still qualify.\n\nOnce Russia has captured the entirety of the above-specified municipalities simultaneously, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: \n\n1. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\n2. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-march-31-2026-cP9C3FdDwsRb.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-march-31-2026-cP9C3FdDwsRb.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-05T21:18:53.470000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T06:31:25Z","result":"no","volume":309715.4514700002,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":46.900428771972656,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:41.060012Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-march-31-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1090495","event_id":"139550","slug":"will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2026","question":"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of a municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within a municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this may still qualify.\n\nOnce Russia has captured the entirety of the above-specified municipalities simultaneously, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2026-atOWkXn1rrer.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2026-atOWkXn1rrer.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.002,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-05T21:18:53.725000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T06:08:38Z","result":"no","volume":431529.21664399974,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":49.39342498779297,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-07-02T06:21:16.123208Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-01T06:22:48.026481Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by-june-30-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?","chart_24h":null}]}