{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/164250","as_of":"2026-10-24T06:49:00.872022Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?\" — 2 markets; highest \"December 31, 2027\" at 13% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/164250","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027"},"source":"polymarket","id":"164250","ticker":"will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027","slug":"will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027","title":"Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027-ZlJaS8Cf4DKO.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027-ZlJaS8Cf4DKO.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-23T22:30:26.125064Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":64925.81951899999,"volume_24hr":516.87,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.17437744140625,"normalized_volume":27.88704490661621,"liquidity":24304.47614,"open_interest":5525.997416,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"101569","slug":"greenland","label":"Greenland"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.13,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.03,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:27:29.646805Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:27:29.646805Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027","chart_24h":[616.043997,616.043997,616.043997,616.043997,616.043997,616.043997,1054.093997,1064.913997,1064.913997,1064.913997,1064.913997,1069.913997,1069.913997,1069.913997,1069.913997,518.99765,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87,516.87],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":2,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1184343","event_id":"164250","slug":"will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027","question":"Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027-ZlJaS8Cf4DKO.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027-ZlJaS8Cf4DKO.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0335,0.9665],"probability":0.0335,"spread":0.005,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-23T22:30:26.125064Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":64854.07638599999,"volume_24hr":516.87,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-97.04634699999997,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.71241569519043,"normalized_volume":36.01809310913086,"liquidity":24719.37266,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-23T18:21:00.571193Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T18:21:00.571193Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027","event_title":"Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?","chart_24h":[0.0335,0.0355,0.0335,0.0335,0.043,0.045,0.041,0.041,0.041,0.043,0.0335,0.0335,0.0335,0.0335,0.0335]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"5458205","event_id":"164250","slug":"will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2028","question":"Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2028?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2027","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027-ZlJaS8Cf4DKO.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027-ZlJaS8Cf4DKO.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.13,0.87],"probability":0.13,"spread":0.14,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-09T14:55:46Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":71.74313300000001,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.03,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.391901016235352,"liquidity":1272.5101,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-23T19:58:26.442884Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T19:58:26.442884Z","added_at":"2026-10-09T15:01:17.265541Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2028","event_title":"Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?","chart_24h":[0.16,0.13]}]}