{"source":"polymarket","id":"166793","ticker":"will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026","slug":"will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026","title":"Will Russia invade another country in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026-OCAAnJhYXFy5.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026-OCAAnJhYXFy5.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T20:34:30.286687Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":277962.27985699865,"volume_24hr":3371.5655540000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.192455291748047,"normalized_volume":32.46868133544922,"liquidity":49222.6053,"open_interest":176314.026775,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"464","slug":"military-action","label":"Military Actions"},{"id":"333","slug":"armenia","label":"Armenia"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":3186.5455540000003,"updated_at":"2026-06-30T23:42:07.882807Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-30T23:42:07.882807Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026","chart_24h":[179.64,179.64,185.02,185.02,185.02,185.02,185.02,648.2,648.2,648.2,648.2,648.2,648.2,648.2,648.2,648.2,648.2,648.2,697.3400000000001,704.0600000000001,704.0600000000001,704.0600000000001,704.0600000000001,711.2900000000001,728.0800000000002,722.7100000000002,711.9800000000002,643.8000000000002,627.7000000000002,622.3200000000002,622.3200000000002,606.22,2159.84,2154.47,2132.9900000000002,2132.9900000000002,2132.9900000000002,2688.5455540000003,2688.5455540000003,2688.5455540000003,2688.5455540000003,3383.185554,3377.8155540000002,3371.5655540000002,3371.5655540000002],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1194695","event_id":"166793","slug":"will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026","question":"Will Russia invade another country in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026-OCAAnJhYXFy5.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026-OCAAnJhYXFy5.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T20:34:30.286687Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":277962.27985699865,"volume_24hr":3371.5655540000002,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":3186.5455540000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.322101593017578,"normalized_volume":45.58277130126953,"liquidity":47153.9751,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-30T23:29:21.346207Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-30T22:53:56.236153Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026","event_title":"Will Russia invade another country in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.085,0.085,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.08,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/166793","as_of":"2026-06-30T23:47:24.114445Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Russia invade another country in 2026?\" — top market at 8% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}