{"source":"polymarket","id":"17549","ticker":"natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025","slug":"natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025","title":"NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor military personnel to qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.\n\nFor military personnel to qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to \"Yes\" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025-ed2fIguRcJLj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025-ed2fIguRcJLj.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-31T23:41:04.062553Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":287326.4427750001,"volume_24hr":1544.250343,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.967134475708008,"normalized_volume":36.0828742980957,"liquidity":21698.651,"open_interest":33210.188344,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"192","slug":"nato","label":"NATO"},{"id":"1476","slug":"eu","label":"eu"},{"id":"102505","slug":"security-guarantee","label":"Security Guarantee"},{"id":"102498","slug":"trump-zelenskyy","label":"Trump-Zelenskyy"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.0275,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0045000000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1040.515343,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T18:29:05.747360Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T18:29:05.747360Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025","chart_24h":[503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,503.73499999999996,500.975,500.975,552.975,543.275,609.615,1752.735343,1752.735343,1752.735343,1544.250343,1544.250343,1544.250343,1544.250343],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"610236","event_id":"17549","slug":"natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-june-30-2026","question":"NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor military personnel to qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.\n\nFor military personnel to qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to \"Yes\" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025-ed2fIguRcJLj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025-ed2fIguRcJLj.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0275,0.9725],"probability":0.0275,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-23T21:16:41.959938Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":116532.73889400013,"volume_24hr":1544.250343,"prob_24h_change":0.0045000000000000005,"volume_24h_change":1040.515343,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.08006477355957,"normalized_volume":39.92890167236328,"liquidity":21392.16293,"categories":["Politics","World"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T17:21:26.652197Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T17:18:43.337264Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-june-30-2026","event_title":"NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?","chart_24h":[0.023,0.023,0.023,0.023,0.023,0.0225,0.0225,0.0225,0.0225,0.0225,0.0215,0.0255,0.026,0.027,0.0275]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"521103","event_id":"17549","slug":"natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025","question":"NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2025","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor military personnel to qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.\n\nFor military personnel to qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to \"Yes\" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025-ed2fIguRcJLj.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025-ed2fIguRcJLj.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-01-31T23:40:06.781000Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-01-01T09:34:35Z","volume":170793.703881,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":42.58864212036133,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025","event_title":"NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/17549","as_of":"2026-05-26T18:37:14.694365Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?\" — top market at 3% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}