{"source":"polymarket","id":"205273","ticker":"will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28","slug":"will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28","title":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28-FJtFc50k1wwO.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28-FJtFc50k1wwO.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-11T22:51:28.352368Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":397190.7928220005,"volume_24hr":25940.69,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.0439567565918,"normalized_volume":37.87120819091797,"liquidity":4247.2075,"open_interest":2509.032162,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 31","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-28T06:17:04.948312Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-28T06:17:04.948312Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28","chart_24h":[259.71,10.7,10.7,10.7,10.7,10.7,100.69999999999999,100.69999999999999,100.69999999999999,100.69999999999999,90.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,102.0,8810.99,19514.98,22585.98,25935.28,25935.28,25940.69,25940.69,25940.69,25940.69],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2053677","event_id":"205273","slug":"will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-may-31","question":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31?","group_item_title":"May 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31-jb27NlKZRXCo.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31-jb27NlKZRXCo.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.07,0.93],"probability":0.07,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-22T16:37:18.370390Z","end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":32106.517496000004,"volume_24hr":25940.69,"prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999995,"volume_24h_change":25929.989999999998,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.38728332519531,"normalized_volume":31.59212875366211,"liquidity":3046.211,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-28T05:45:33.549634Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-28T05:43:37.311969Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-may-31","event_title":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?","chart_24h":[0.08,0.085,0.075,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.065,0.065,0.065,0.065,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.075,0.075,0.07,0.07,0.07]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2374171","event_id":"205273","slug":"will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-july-31","question":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31-jb27NlKZRXCo.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31-jb27NlKZRXCo.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":0.88,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-27T22:04:47.388784Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":12.7395,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-28T06:19:06.513457Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-28T06:17:05.280090Z","added_at":"2026-05-27T22:04:15.312681Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-july-31","event_title":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5,0.5,0.495,0.515,0.475,0.48,0.495,0.48,0.48,0.5]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1366917","event_id":"205273","slug":"will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28","question":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by February 28?","group_item_title":"February 28","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28-6pm6HTvKPf_P.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28-6pm6HTvKPf_P.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-02-11T22:49:50.479000Z","end_date":"2026-02-28T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-03-01T07:19:15Z","volume":100786.131209,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.941341400146484,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:00.210293Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:00.210293Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28","event_title":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1418685","event_id":"205273","slug":"will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31","question":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?","group_item_title":"March 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31-jb27NlKZRXCo.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31-jb27NlKZRXCo.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-02-23T13:21:08.031000Z","end_date":"2026-03-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T06:23:21Z","volume":218347.84392600038,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.34288787841797,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:00.210293Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:00.210293Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31","event_title":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1729358","event_id":"205273","slug":"will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-april-30","question":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?","group_item_title":"April 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31-jb27NlKZRXCo.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-march-31-jb27NlKZRXCo.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-26T12:53:22.602455Z","end_date":"2026-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-05-01T06:56:38Z","volume":45950.30019100013,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.812679290771484,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:00.210293Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:00.210293Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-april-30","event_title":"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/205273","as_of":"2026-05-28T06:23:28.675836Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?\" — top market at 7% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}