{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/225858","as_of":"2026-11-04T19:14:42.188333Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?\" — 9 markets; highest \"Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan\" at 32% as of 2026-11-04 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/225858","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026"},"source":"polymarket","id":"225858","ticker":"which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026","slug":"which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026","title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T01:24:34.067851Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":199381.316212,"volume_24hr":643.701353,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.015003204345703,"normalized_volume":33.79573059082031,"liquidity":56357.09045,"open_interest":5602.890044,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"956","slug":"mexico","label":"Mexico"},{"id":"103873","slug":"mexico-cartel-war","label":"Mexico Cartel War"},{"id":"103876","slug":"jalisco","label":"jalisco"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"103875","slug":"el-mencho","label":"El Mencho"},{"id":"103879","slug":"mencho","label":"mencho"},{"id":"101968","slug":"cjng","label":"CJNG"},{"id":"103880","slug":"jalisco-new-generation-cartel","label":"Jalisco New Generation Cartel"},{"id":"103881","slug":"sinaloa-cartel","label":"sinaloa Cartel"},{"id":"101283","slug":"colombia","label":"Colombia"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan","top_outcome_probability":0.318,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.08300000000000002,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":20.0,"updated_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:23.631594Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:23.631594Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026","chart_24h":[361.145787,359.125787,394.4199,427.62249099999997,634.4124909999999,634.4124909999999,694.4124909999999,714.4124909999999,714.4124909999999,714.4124909999999,714.4124909999999,714.4124909999999,764.84714,744.84714,425.721353,486.721353,486.721353,486.721353,486.721353,486.721353,486.721353,486.721353,643.701353,643.701353,643.701353,643.701353,643.701353,643.701353,643.701353],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":9,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1419326","event_id":"225858","slug":"will-hugo-gonzalo-mendoza-gaytan-be-arrested-in-2026","question":"Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?","group_item_title":"Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.318,0.682],"probability":0.318,"spread":0.562,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T01:24:39.999309Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":5496.144324999999,"volume_24hr":40.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.08300000000000002,"volume_24h_change":20.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.238941669464111,"normalized_volume":21.75978660583496,"liquidity":313.86016,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026/will-hugo-gonzalo-mendoza-gaytan-be-arrested-in-2026","event_title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.401,0.4115,0.411,0.4045,0.414,0.357,0.3455,0.329,0.3225,0.309,0.3,0.2955,0.3135,0.293,0.283,0.271,0.265,0.3555,0.336,0.3185,0.303,0.287,0.279,0.27,0.255,0.245,0.341,0.318]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1419327","event_id":"225858","slug":"will-juan-carlos-valencia-gonzalez-be-arrested-in-2026-329-399","question":"Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?","group_item_title":"Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.285,0.715],"probability":0.285,"spread":0.23,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T01:24:38.618874Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":60664.04302700001,"volume_24hr":187.0,"prob_24h_change":0.14999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":40.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.416754722595215,"normalized_volume":35.58517837524414,"liquidity":183.0971,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026/will-juan-carlos-valencia-gonzalez-be-arrested-in-2026-329-399","event_title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.135,0.255,0.245,0.23,0.255,0.245,0.255,0.225,0.245,0.235,0.245,0.235,0.245,0.23,0.26,0.265,0.26,0.255,0.295,0.29,0.265,0.305,0.285]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"6391109","event_id":"225858","slug":"will-ivan-mordisco-be-arrested-in-2026","question":"Will Iván Mordisco be arrested in 2026?","group_item_title":"Iván Mordisco","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.165,0.835],"probability":0.165,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-29T16:39:12Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":1069.95685,"volume_24hr":71.434649,"prob_24h_change":-0.16,"volume_24h_change":51.43464899999999,"normalized_vol_24hr":6.967742443084717,"normalized_volume":14.279054641723633,"liquidity":10352.8986,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Colombia"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","added_at":"2026-10-29T16:49:23.803303Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026/will-ivan-mordisco-be-arrested-in-2026","event_title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.325,0.165,0.17,0.245,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.23,0.43,0.4,0.305,0.255,0.165,0.135,0.125,0.185,0.365,0.31,0.33,0.245,0.175,0.185,0.155,0.135,0.15,0.165]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1419324","event_id":"225858","slug":"will-ricardo-ruiz-velasco-be-arrested-in-2026","question":"Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?","group_item_title":"Ricardo Ruiz Velasco","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.159,0.841],"probability":0.159,"spread":0.07,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T01:24:40.980917Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":63769.283896999994,"volume_24hr":112.992591,"prob_24h_change":0.01050000000000001,"volume_24h_change":112.992591,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.521336555480957,"normalized_volume":35.90850830078125,"liquidity":581.84323,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026/will-ricardo-ruiz-velasco-be-arrested-in-2026","event_title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.1485,0.148,0.142,0.1275,0.1705,0.17,0.17,0.1705,0.1705,0.1705,0.1705,0.1705,0.17,0.17,0.171,0.171,0.171,0.171,0.171,0.1715,0.1815,0.1815,0.1815,0.1815,0.1815,0.1665,0.1605,0.159]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1419332","event_id":"225858","slug":"will-juan-meja-gonzlez-be-arrested-in-2026-543-789","question":"Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?","group_item_title":"Juan Reyes Mejía González","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.105,0.895],"probability":0.105,"spread":0.05,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T01:24:34.067851Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":38860.096168000004,"volume_24hr":146.98,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.486193656921387,"normalized_volume":32.76522445678711,"liquidity":10583.3683,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T16:39:26.593902Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T16:39:26.593902Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026/will-juan-meja-gonzlez-be-arrested-in-2026-543-789","event_title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1419323","event_id":"225858","slug":"will-jess-alfredo-guzmn-salazar-be-arrested-in-2026","question":"Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?","group_item_title":"Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.055,0.945],"probability":0.055,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T01:24:38.365477Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":7762.541988999998,"volume_24hr":85.294113,"prob_24h_change":-0.055,"volume_24h_change":-213.83167400000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":7.549070835113525,"normalized_volume":23.53922462463379,"liquidity":10592.6026,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T18:49:24.308454Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026/will-jess-alfredo-guzmn-salazar-be-arrested-in-2026","event_title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.11,0.12,0.115,0.11,0.12,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.115,0.125,0.1,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.075,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.055,0.055]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1419325","event_id":"225858","slug":"will-audias-flores-silva-be-arrested-in-2026","question":"Will Audias Flores-Silva be arrested in 2026?","group_item_title":"Audias Flores-Silva","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":0.978,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-02-24T01:24:36.066233Z","end_date":"2026-02-28T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-28T12:13:14Z","result":"yes","volume":5948.009814999999,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.16081428527832,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:00.210293Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:00.210293Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026/will-audias-flores-silva-be-arrested-in-2026","event_title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1419828","event_id":"225858","slug":"will-juan-pablo-ledezma-be-arrested-in-2026","question":"Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026?","group_item_title":"Juan Pablo Ledezma","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.14,0.86],"probability":0.14,"spread":0.04,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T01:24:38.112069Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":3227.304778,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.153141021728516,"liquidity":10508.136,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T16:13:18.742031Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T16:13:18.742031Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026/will-juan-pablo-ledezma-be-arrested-in-2026","event_title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.13,0.125,0.13,0.125,0.135,0.125,0.125,0.135,0.14]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1419322","event_id":"225858","slug":"will-ivn-archivaldo-guzmn-salazar-be-arrested-in-2026","question":"Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?","group_item_title":"Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTemporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.\n\nA qualifying arrest/detention includes:\n* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)\n* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant\n* Being formally booked or processed following detention\n* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station\n* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney\n* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring\n\nThe following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention\n* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed\n* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest\n* Being named in an indictment without arrest\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026-JGalrbgqssug.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.087,0.913],"probability":0.087,"spread":0.016,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-24T01:24:40.252674Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":12583.935363000002,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.035,"volume_24h_change":-22.02,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.146629333496094,"liquidity":11517.50738,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-11-04T17:31:29.803308Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-04T17:31:29.803308Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026/will-ivn-archivaldo-guzmn-salazar-be-arrested-in-2026","event_title":"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.122,0.1225,0.1225,0.122,0.122,0.1225,0.122,0.122,0.123,0.123,0.124,0.1225,0.1225,0.123,0.1265,0.1285,0.133,0.1325,0.132,0.1265,0.126,0.0975,0.0965,0.094,0.094,0.0865,0.087]}]}