{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/25827","as_of":"2026-10-29T02:17:19.479145Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Russia capture Sumy by...?\" — 3 markets; highest \"March 31, 2027\" at 3% as of 2026-10-29 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/25827","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october"},"source":"polymarket","id":"25827","ticker":"will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","slug":"will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","title":"Will Russia capture Sumy by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-02T23:46:20.925030Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":872548.309347,"volume_24hr":24.5,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.69989013671875,"normalized_volume":42.492835998535156,"liquidity":17105.7549,"open_interest":69269.65678500001,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"270","slug":"putin","label":"putin"},{"id":"102475","slug":"russia-capture","label":"Russia Capture"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"March 31, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.028,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-29T01:53:45.541269Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T01:53:45.541269Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,24.5,24.5,24.5,24.5,24.5,24.5,24.5,24.5],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":3,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1007579","event_id":"25827","slug":"will-russia-capture-sumy-by-march-31-2027","question":"Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?","group_item_title":"March 31, 2027","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sofiivka-by-april-30-xHE-DWW9kL3z.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.028,0.972],"probability":0.028,"spread":0.022,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-23T23:02:06.890000Z","end_date":"2027-04-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":449395.510574,"volume_24hr":24.5,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.205784320831299,"normalized_volume":49.70277404785156,"liquidity":16913.82118,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-29T01:25:55.111396Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-29T01:25:55.111396Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october/will-russia-capture-sumy-by-march-31-2027","event_title":"Will Russia capture Sumy by...?","chart_24h":[0.028,0.028,0.028,0.028,0.028]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"549369","event_id":"25827","slug":"will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","question":"Will Russia capture Sumy before October?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october-IjdnqiUUMWC7.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october-IjdnqiUUMWC7.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.003,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-06-02T23:44:22.433000Z","end_date":"2025-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2025-10-01T06:28:35Z","result":"no","volume":381269.57535,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":48.45514678955078,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october","event_title":"Will Russia capture Sumy by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"595710","event_id":"25827","slug":"will-russia-capture-sumy-by-december-31","question":"Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october-IjdnqiUUMWC7.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october-IjdnqiUUMWC7.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-09-12T22:23:43.636086Z","end_date":"2025-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-01-01T09:14:41Z","result":"no","volume":41883.223423,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.231422424316406,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october/will-russia-capture-sumy-by-december-31","event_title":"Will Russia capture Sumy by...?","chart_24h":null}]}