{"source":"polymarket","id":"276527","ticker":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-16T18:44:59.488518Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5042429.7424829975,"volume_24hr":25934.965582,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.07265853881836,"normalized_volume":50.319454193115234,"liquidity":178332.01145,"open_interest":484605.0844,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"102107","slug":"houthi","label":"houthi"},{"id":"104136","slug":"traffic","label":"traffic"},{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"},{"id":"583","slug":"shipping","label":"shipping"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104235","slug":"cape-of-good-hope","label":"cape of good hope"},{"id":"104009","slug":"regional-spillover","label":"Regional Spillover"},{"id":"749","slug":"red-sea","label":"red sea"},{"id":"582","slug":"houthis","label":"Houthis"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"September 30","top_outcome_probability":0.125,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":9295.532979000001,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:24.722884Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:24.722884Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","chart_24h":[22573.197429,21607.147429,23608.877429,24079.320284999998,24079.320284999998,24480.090285,24675.760285,9514.370285,9514.370285,7104.691675,7054.7686,7054.7686,14850.932236,14850.932236,14885.830467,15427.459562,15427.459562,15473.459562,18173.145121,17628.485121,16748.825121,17147.960665000002,17107.397457000003,17107.397457000003,22516.337457,22302.195568000003,22297.145568,22047.145568,22047.145568,22019.225118000002,25919.225118000002,25944.319118000003,25944.319118000003,25934.965582],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2170255","event_id":"276527","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-september-30","question":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-06T00:27:57.775000Z","end_date":"2026-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":351152.71242199984,"volume_24hr":12871.499712,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":9295.532979000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.144454956054688,"normalized_volume":45.19504165649414,"liquidity":41170.1556,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:12:12.070431Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T08:47:56.371295Z","added_at":"2026-05-06T00:34:27.790693Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-september-30","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.13,0.135,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.135,0.14,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2170254","event_id":"276527","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571","question":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0135,0.9865],"probability":0.0135,"spread":0.009,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-06T00:27:57.520000Z","end_date":"2026-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1045243.8097970018,"volume_24hr":4157.733908,"prob_24h_change":0.002,"volume_24h_change":-13666.230424,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.3756046295166,"normalized_volume":53.24636459350586,"liquidity":43092.98699,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:26:13.922595Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:23:49.035829Z","added_at":"2026-05-06T00:34:27.790693Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.0115,0.0115,0.012,0.012,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.0115,0.016,0.0145,0.014,0.015,0.015,0.011,0.014,0.014,0.015,0.015,0.0145,0.015,0.014,0.015,0.015,0.0145,0.011,0.011,0.0135]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2473006","event_id":"276527","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-22-183","question":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?","group_item_title":"June 22","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.006,0.994],"probability":0.006,"spread":0.004,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-08T21:42:51.206000Z","end_date":"2026-06-22T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":105807.75183199997,"volume_24hr":5291.991962,"prob_24h_change":-0.001,"volume_24h_change":4679.041962,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.748260498046875,"normalized_volume":37.10216522216797,"liquidity":40997.579,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:26:29.983881Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:23:49.035829Z","added_at":"2026-06-08T20:26:53.974145Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-22-183","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.007,0.0065,0.006,0.0055,0.006]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2473005","event_id":"276527","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-15","question":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?","group_item_title":"June 15","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.001,0.999],"probability":0.001,"spread":0.002,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-08T21:42:37.834621Z","end_date":"2026-06-15T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":219061.612598,"volume_24hr":3613.7400000000002,"prob_24h_change":-0.002,"volume_24h_change":167.00699700000087,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.59569549560547,"normalized_volume":41.916473388671875,"liquidity":33614.29258,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:12:12.070431Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:09:38.438577Z","added_at":"2026-06-08T20:26:53.974145Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-15","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":[0.003,0.003,0.0005,0.002,0.002,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.0025,0.002,0.002,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1607575","event_id":"276527","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-march-31","question":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?","group_item_title":"March 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-16T18:44:35.261000Z","end_date":"2026-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-07T16:09:05Z","volume":330325.4789079996,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.76325607299805,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:12.343498Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:12.343498Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-march-31","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1609728","event_id":"276527","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-april-30","question":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?","group_item_title":"April 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.003,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-03-16T18:44:35.006000Z","end_date":"2026-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-05-05T16:50:08Z","volume":1651616.9613379955,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":56.81965637207031,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-05-06T16:52:13.604411Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-06T15:45:23.529225Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-april-30","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1980863","event_id":"276527","slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-may-31","question":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?","group_item_title":"May 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-14T14:32:23.356445Z","end_date":"2026-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-02T18:33:58Z","volume":1339221.415588001,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":55.16767501831055,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Yemen"],"updated_at":"2026-06-03T18:45:37.297845Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T18:12:17.411459Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-may-31","event_title":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/276527","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:03:13.480267Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?\" — top market at 12% probability across 7 outcomes","source_url":null}}