{"source":"polymarket","id":"281143","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:27:41.000868Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2156420.456893999,"volume_24hr":7012.326345,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":30.117076873779297,"normalized_volume":48.364967346191406,"liquidity":82069.5622,"open_interest":341842.245777,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0035,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2171.714793000002,"updated_at":"2026-09-19T20:05:07.058416Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-19T20:05:07.058416Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","chart_24h":[9184.061138000001,9184.061138000001,11456.970517000002,12686.33457,12686.33457,12686.334569999999,12686.33457,13779.223919000002,13675.623919000001,13772.968683000003,12493.376474,12553.628260000001,12541.851151,12544.286569000002,13558.695748,13562.435139000001,11369.858833,10885.373377,10719.373377,10455.373377,10785.373377,9510.493377,9458.493377,9402.192474000001,9394.95476,8236.479333,8236.479333,8246.719333,8262.346344999998,8262.346344999998,8262.346344999998],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1633606","event_id":"281143","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","question":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0035,0.9965],"probability":0.0035,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:27:41.000868Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2156420.456893999,"volume_24hr":7012.326345,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-2171.714793000002,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.836606979370117,"normalized_volume":62.402095794677734,"liquidity":82069.5622,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-09-19T20:05:07.702750Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-19T20:05:07.702750Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","event_title":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035,0.0035]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/281143","as_of":"2026-09-19T20:07:27.392505Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?\" — top market at 0% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}