{"source":"polymarket","id":"281143","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:27:41.000868Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":920640.4756740034,"volume_24hr":1892.037051,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.21735191345215,"normalized_volume":39.83876037597656,"liquidity":101554.15017,"open_interest":217594.30083,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0245,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":732.6330350000005,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T13:01:17.645053Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T13:01:17.645053Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","chart_24h":[1159.4040159999995,944.4603490000002,948.4266100000002,984.7466100000003,984.7466100000003,984.7466100000003,984.7466100000003,984.7466100000003,985.7666100000002,975.5691760000002,965.3717420000003,965.3717420000003,955.1743080000002,965.3970110000002,975.6197140000003,975.6197140000003,975.6197140000003,996.0882550000002,996.1134870000002,985.9160530000003,1006.3866170000002,996.1512260000002,985.9537920000002,975.7815900000002,1698.1915900000001,2410.3941560000003,2410.3941560000003,2129.144156,2020.604156,2010.406722,2010.406722,2020.629425,2010.431991,2000.234521],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1633606","event_id":"281143","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","question":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0245,0.9755],"probability":0.0245,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:27:41.000868Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":920640.4756740034,"volume_24hr":1892.037051,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":732.6330350000005,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.16858673095703,"normalized_volume":52.275508880615234,"liquidity":101882.6002,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T13:03:46.784109Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T13:01:18.041583Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","event_title":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.0245,0.0245,0.0245,0.0245,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.0245,0.0245,0.0245,0.0245,0.025,0.025,0.025,0.0245,0.0245,0.0245]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/281143","as_of":"2026-06-21T13:07:34.552302Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?\" — top market at 2% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}