{"source":"polymarket","id":"281143","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:27:41.000868Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1821906.2918869995,"volume_24hr":815.6637549999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":19.274023056030273,"normalized_volume":47.35692596435547,"liquidity":121270.69238,"open_interest":289650.744604,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.0125,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0004999999999999987,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-7155.55046,"updated_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:36.746790Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:36.746790Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","chart_24h":[8196.829498000001,7541.852498,7673.082498,7674.372498,7688.172498,7690.662497999999,7085.932497999999,7088.482497999999,7088.482497999999,7088.482497999998,7088.482497999999,7088.482497999999,6556.1124979999995,6556.1124979999995,6561.0112819999995,6233.477718,6233.477718,6233.477718,5755.374302,4895.960615999999,3679.62693,3875.011095,3851.640429,3851.6404289999996,786.9689480000001,886.400038,898.850038],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1633606","event_id":"281143","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","question":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0125,0.9875],"probability":0.0125,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:27:41.000868Z","end_date":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1821906.2918869995,"volume_24hr":815.6637549999999,"prob_24h_change":-0.0004999999999999987,"volume_24h_change":-7155.55046,"normalized_vol_24hr":21.196992874145508,"normalized_volume":60.96781921386719,"liquidity":121113.81819,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:37.518545Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:37.518545Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026","event_title":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.013,0.0125,0.0125,0.0125,0.0125,0.0125,0.0125,0.0125]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/281143","as_of":"2026-08-05T14:37:22.377065Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?\" — top market at 1% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}