{"source":"polymarket","id":"281145","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:32:00.623000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3230027.603318,"volume_24hr":4388.642621000001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.015926361083984,"normalized_volume":51.081939697265625,"liquidity":198302.4,"open_interest":961591.807585,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.115,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":1119.365776000001,"updated_at":"2026-09-19T19:10:03.172504Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-19T19:10:03.172504Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","chart_24h":[3211.784025,3211.784025,3266.7740249999997,3266.7740249999997,3266.7740249999997,3266.7740249999997,3266.7740249999997,2653.8526899999997,2653.8526899999997,2653.8526899999997,653.83269,653.83269,653.83269,653.83269,665.068644,440.349544,3699.6895440000003,3726.9895440000005,3644.9895440000005,3562.9895440000005,3682.0995440000006,3682.0995440000006,4098.766211000001,4098.766211000001,4089.7662110000006,4489.766211000001,4489.766211000001,4489.766211000001,4489.766211000001,4389.766211000001,4389.766211000001],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1633611","event_id":"281145","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","question":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.115,0.885],"probability":0.115,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:32:00.623000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3230027.603317999,"volume_24hr":4388.642621000001,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":1119.365776000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.55839729309082,"normalized_volume":65.90762329101562,"liquidity":198302.4,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-09-19T19:10:03.745097Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-19T19:10:03.745097Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","event_title":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","chart_24h":[0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115,0.115]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/281145","as_of":"2026-09-19T19:19:34.545521Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?\" — top market at 12% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}