{"source":"polymarket","id":"281145","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:32:00.623000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1117395.232592002,"volume_24hr":673.3594499999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.763375282287598,"normalized_volume":40.97297286987305,"liquidity":150395.2415,"open_interest":712802.482932,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.145,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-13974.573626000001,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:24.722884Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:24.722884Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","chart_24h":[14590.933076000001,14590.933076000001,14590.933076000001,14647.933076000001,14637.933076000001,9900.110291,10200.110291,6867.936959000001,6893.436959000001,6893.436959000001,6893.436959000001,6865.936959000001,6865.936959000001,5509.812932000001,5509.812932000001,5509.812932000001,5559.492932,5559.492932,5559.492932,5556.667354,5556.667354,5556.667354,5557.830139,5557.830139,5557.830139,5557.830139,5618.930139,3870.720139,1236.7961149999999,1236.7961149999999,603.45945,673.3594499999999,673.3594499999999,673.3594499999999],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1633611","event_id":"281145","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","question":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.145,0.855],"probability":0.145,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:32:00.623000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1117395.232592002,"volume_24hr":673.3594499999999,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-13974.573626000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.283267974853516,"normalized_volume":53.76047897338867,"liquidity":149598.9848,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T09:47:34.483708Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T09:45:07.063170Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","event_title":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","chart_24h":[0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/281145","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:01:38.078853Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?\" — top market at 14% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}