{"source":"polymarket","id":"281145","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:32:00.623000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2611151.230813,"volume_24hr":7684.698335,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":33.48283767700195,"normalized_volume":49.751224517822266,"liquidity":256630.974,"open_interest":800248.477237,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.125,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-28438.72372799999,"updated_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:36.746790Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:36.746790Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","chart_24h":[36266.27920399999,36409.13634499999,36509.13634499999,37243.71898299999,37243.71898299999,37243.71898299999,37249.13001299999,37250.27943599999,37250.27943599999,37250.27943599998,37250.27943599998,37250.27943599999,36873.77943599999,36781.825418,36747.342661,42455.966519,42432.97801499999,42432.978015,42432.97801499999,8178.88121,7893.46264,7916.189906,7991.201404,8047.269103,8047.269102999999,7762.659103,7827.555476,7827.555476],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1633611","event_id":"281145","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","question":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.125,0.875],"probability":0.125,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-17T23:32:00.623000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2611151.230813,"volume_24hr":7684.698335,"prob_24h_change":-0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":-28438.72372799999,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.823421478271484,"normalized_volume":64.05026245117188,"liquidity":258030.974,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:37.518545Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:37.518545Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027","event_title":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","chart_24h":[0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125,0.125]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/281145","as_of":"2026-08-05T14:37:10.580843Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?\" — top market at 12% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}