{"source":"polymarket","id":"330223","ticker":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027","title":"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-01T16:20:04.830386Z","end_date":"2027-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":415431.29763799993,"volume_24hr":33.854614,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.188023090362549,"normalized_volume":38.141929626464844,"liquidity":88088.9386,"open_interest":139750.411455,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"303","slug":"china","label":"China"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"867","slug":"taiwan","label":"Taiwan"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.095,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-2000.211315,"updated_at":"2026-08-05T15:09:11.889874Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T15:09:11.889874Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027","chart_24h":[2034.065929,2034.065929,2034.065929,2032.967029,2032.967029,2032.967029,2032.967029,2032.967029,2032.967029,21.97802,21.97802,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,15.384614,33.854614,33.854614,33.854614,33.854614,33.854614,33.854614,33.854614],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1811266","event_id":"330223","slug":"will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027","question":"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.095,0.905],"probability":0.095,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-01T16:20:04.830386Z","end_date":"2027-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":415431.29763799993,"volume_24hr":33.854614,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-2000.211315,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.644094467163086,"normalized_volume":49.10439682006836,"liquidity":88097.7386,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:40.930191Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T14:25:40.930191Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027","event_title":"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?","chart_24h":[0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/330223","as_of":"2026-08-05T15:37:29.309488Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?\" — top market at 10% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}