{"source":"polymarket","id":"34889","ticker":"will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31","slug":"will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31","title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-30T18:42:20.157735Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T20:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1805875.3570690001,"volume_24hr":69455.648587,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.778045654296875,"normalized_volume":47.4169807434082,"liquidity":24137.1695,"open_interest":45611.135847,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"61","slug":"gaza","label":"Gaza"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102419","slug":"global","label":"Global"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.065,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":69296.679988,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:53:36.659510Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:53:36.659510Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31","chart_24h":[158.968599,158.968599,32.558599,32.558599,32.558599,32.558599,44.78082,44.78082,44.78082,44.78082,44.78082,42.447488,42.447488,23.927488,505.393854,505.393854,505.393854,505.393854,505.393854,505.393854,505.393854,505.393854,2525.3838539999997,4545.3738539999995,17063.373854,34549.353854,53162.353854,57609.353854,64557.353854,67012.353854,69467.353854,69466.278587,69466.278587,69466.278587,69455.648587],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"1294921","event_id":"34889","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-june-30","question":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.065,0.935],"probability":0.065,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-29T20:41:48.489724Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T20:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":204084.1575589999,"volume_24hr":69455.648587,"prob_24h_change":-0.015,"volume_24h_change":69296.679988,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.59162521362305,"normalized_volume":43.85688400268555,"liquidity":24137.1695,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:42:19.611805Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:39:22.254973Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-june-30","event_title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","chart_24h":[0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.075,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.075,0.07,0.065,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.065,0.065]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1294920","event_id":"34889","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-february-28","question":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by February 28?","group_item_title":"February 28, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-01-29T20:41:28.710804Z","end_date":"2026-03-31T20:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-03-01T10:27:07Z","volume":12570.90016,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.14089012145996,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-february-28","event_title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"570071","event_id":"34889","slug":"will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-858","question":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-07-30T18:40:07.377000Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T20:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-01-01T11:12:23Z","volume":1141374.498639,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":57.07634735107422,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-858","event_title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"657400","event_id":"34889","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-november-30-365","question":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?","group_item_title":"November 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-10-30T22:43:00.824733Z","end_date":"2025-11-30T20:05:00Z","closed_time":"2025-12-01T09:23:26Z","volume":173282.628964,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":42.690982818603516,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-november-30-365","event_title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"677357","event_id":"34889","slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-march-31-966","question":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?","group_item_title":"March 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31-qapFZWHfEvne.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-11-13T16:19:06.791845Z","end_date":"2026-03-31T20:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T10:02:55Z","volume":274563.17174700013,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":46.01091003417969,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-march-31-966","event_title":"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/34889","as_of":"2026-05-26T16:03:53.540137Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?\" — top market at 6% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}