{"source":"polymarket","id":"36307","ticker":"gpt-6-released-by","slug":"gpt-6-released-by","title":"GPT-6 released by…?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-07T20:45:08.400421Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":319799.8132949992,"volume_24hr":4760.673556,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.961498260498047,"normalized_volume":36.682823181152344,"liquidity":11742.587,"open_interest":61021.006398,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"537","slug":"openai","label":"OpenAI"},{"id":"102464","slug":"gpt-5","label":"GPT-5"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"285","slug":"sam-altman","label":"sam altman"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31, 2026","top_outcome_probability":0.85,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-0.6905970000000252,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T22:54:34.244746Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T22:54:34.244746Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by","chart_24h":[904.3350530000001,904.3350530000001,904.3350530000001,904.3350530000001,904.3350530000001,904.3350530000001,857.9824730000001,712.3307430000001,712.3307430000001,827.566489,435.917379,325.880493,331.904741,327.80314,331.53314,331.53314,338.21314,338.21314,445.87314,445.87314,334.87314,334.87314,334.87314,325.782232,325.782232,325.782232,248.862232,2462.747597,2462.747597,2462.747597,4531.936345,4530.773556,4644.403556,4760.673556,4760.673556],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"676829","event_id":"36307","slug":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-december-31-2026-834","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.85,0.15],"probability":0.85,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-12T22:08:00.534000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":40878.10118400004,"volume_24hr":239.375746,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":-0.6905970000000252,"normalized_vol_24hr":11.750114440917969,"normalized_volume":33.07990646362305,"liquidity":4720.851,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T22:43:08.566841Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T21:44:15.488367Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-december-31-2026-834","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.855,0.855,0.855,0.855,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.85]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"1333258","event_id":"36307","slug":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-september-30-2026","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.52,0.48],"probability":0.52,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-04T18:11:27.891467Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6154.9579820000035,"volume_24hr":32.227445,"prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":10.443697000000004,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.798498630523682,"normalized_volume":22.33554458618164,"liquidity":1330.3012,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T20:08:13.735241Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T20:05:34.660669Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-september-30-2026","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.52]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"676828","event_id":"36307","slug":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-june-30-2026","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.2,0.8],"probability":0.2,"spread":0.08,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-11-12T22:08:00.792249Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":164873.52790599916,"volume_24hr":4489.070365,"prob_24h_change":0.085,"volume_24h_change":3846.5854029999996,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.649351119995117,"normalized_volume":42.33960723876953,"liquidity":5738.0276,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T22:57:08.035612Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T22:54:34.431257Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-june-30-2026","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":[0.115,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.1,0.095,0.1,0.11,0.115,0.17,0.175,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"573825","event_id":"36307","slug":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-december-31","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by December 31?","group_item_title":"December 31, 2025","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-08-07T20:35:56.592000Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-01-01T09:38:41Z","volume":107893.226223,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.40334701538086,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-december-31","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"573826","event_id":"36307","slug":"will-gpt-6-be-released-by-march-31-2026","question":"Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"March 31, 2026","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/when-will-gpt-5-be-released-vIPhU76RogZc.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-08-07T20:35:37.765000Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-01T07:57:27Z","volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-march-31-2026","event_title":"GPT-6 released by…?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/36307","as_of":"2026-05-26T23:03:19.304026Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"GPT-6 released by…?\" — top market at 20% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}