{"source":"polymarket","id":"37568","ticker":"us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31","slug":"us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31","title":"U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.\n\nAn extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAgreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.\n\nThe agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve \"Yes\"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-in-2025-CSpSAD1Tn25O.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-in-2025-CSpSAD1Tn25O.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-14T23:27:41.966147Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":602468.629316,"volume_24hr":2605.41,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":18.483163833618164,"normalized_volume":37.87788391113281,"liquidity":16441.45169,"open_interest":7156.818765,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"102477","slug":"trump-putin","label":"Trump-Putin"},{"id":"101794","slug":"foreign-policy","label":"Foreign Policy"},{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"101191","slug":"trump-presidency","label":"Trump Presidency"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30","top_outcome_probability":0.0035,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.024,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2564.504167,"updated_at":"2026-06-16T16:43:39.099951Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-16T16:43:39.099951Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31","chart_24h":[31.815833,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,19.3945,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,10.3045,9.09,9.09,2515.9900000000002,2515.9900000000002,2515.9900000000002,2535.3900000000003,2614.5000000000005,2614.5000000000005],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"904731","event_id":"37568","slug":"us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-june-30","question":"U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.\n\nAn extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAgreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.\n\nThe agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve \"Yes\"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-in-2025-CSpSAD1Tn25O.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-in-2025-CSpSAD1Tn25O.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0035,0.9965],"probability":0.0035,"spread":0.003,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-11T00:06:26.348369Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":45023.55168700006,"volume_24hr":2605.41,"prob_24h_change":-0.024,"volume_24h_change":2564.504167,"normalized_vol_24hr":20.963455200195312,"normalized_volume":33.6844596862793,"liquidity":16286.78041,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-16T16:48:19.117473Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-16T16:43:39.841075Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-june-30","event_title":"U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?","chart_24h":[0.0275,0.0245,0.0235,0.024,0.024,0.0235,0.0235,0.025,0.0235,0.024,0.0235,0.027,0.0245,0.0255,0.0295,0.0265,0.0255,0.026,0.0235,0.0255,0.026,0.0255,0.0235,0.0265,0.0235,0.0255,0.027,0.024,0.0265,0.0035,0.0095,0.0035,0.0045,0.0045,0.0035,0.0035]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"576154","event_id":"37568","slug":"us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31","question":"U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.\n\nAn extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAgreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.\n\nThe agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve \"Yes\"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-in-2025-CSpSAD1Tn25O.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-in-2025-CSpSAD1Tn25O.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-08-14T23:18:40.907000Z","end_date":"2025-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-01-01T09:07:39Z","volume":493929.124555,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":50.427040100097656,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31","event_title":"U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"904730","event_id":"37568","slug":"us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-february-4","question":"U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by February 4?","group_item_title":"February 4","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and February 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.\n\nAn extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAgreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.\n\nThe agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve \"Yes\"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-in-2025-CSpSAD1Tn25O.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-in-2025-CSpSAD1Tn25O.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-12-11T00:06:26.601637Z","end_date":"2026-02-04T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-02-05T09:31:09Z","volume":63515.953074,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.88267517089844,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:27:30.159207Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-february-4","event_title":"U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/37568","as_of":"2026-06-16T16:54:38.274576Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?\" — top market at 0% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}