{"source":"polymarket","id":"386759","ticker":"israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by","slug":"israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by","title":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-16T23:56:58.321815Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7814371.5557830045,"volume_24hr":188910.527789,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.40021514892578,"normalized_volume":53.21662902832031,"liquidity":87602.07089,"open_interest":526251.1726320001,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"104064","slug":"israel-x-iran","label":"Israel x Iran"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"},{"id":"849","slug":"lebanon","label":"Lebanon"},{"id":"297","slug":"hezbollah","label":"Hezbollah"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 31","top_outcome_probability":0.25,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-30186.537824999978,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:32.700216Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:32.700216Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by","chart_24h":[686552.1414020001,524019.95438399987,476743.47067400004,451108.9128,451729.06457100005,452299.1913510001,440668.294577,309964.38794700004,286679.80260200007,285459.764663,273109.173853,270821.64634100004,271872.79868999997,267190.90452599997,258729.63678799992,250682.4790649999,243227.66789799993,238866.00979199994,234826.86466299993,229945.69994199995,227836.09771599993,228020.42428099993,226294.80209799996,224624.46695099995,227010.54646299995,230275.50899599996,227360.83787,229288.564929,221158.23158199995,219752.36354499997,214628.19676199998,204572.83568299998,190311.06126500003,191041.495405],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2535844","event_id":"386759","slug":"israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026","question":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"July 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.25,0.75],"probability":0.25,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-13T22:39:50.207848Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":322217.2097189999,"volume_24hr":113531.468807,"prob_24h_change":-0.015000000000000013,"volume_24h_change":-30186.537824999978,"normalized_vol_24hr":45.609779357910156,"normalized_volume":44.588340759277344,"liquidity":29709.4711,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Lebanon"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:54:57.283675Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:33.039541Z","added_at":"2026-06-13T22:42:40.363823Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026","event_title":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":[0.26,0.265,0.26,0.265,0.265,0.275,0.27,0.275,0.265,0.27,0.27,0.275,0.275,0.265,0.265,0.275,0.27,0.295,0.265,0.255,0.265,0.26,0.28,0.275,0.285,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.255,0.255,0.255,0.25,0.25,0.25]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2354012","event_id":"386759","slug":"israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026","question":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.153,0.847],"probability":0.153,"spread":0.016,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-25T15:18:50.466081Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2537665.8744180026,"volume_24hr":75379.058982,"prob_24h_change":0.055999999999999994,"volume_24h_change":-198677.89256600017,"normalized_vol_24hr":42.45669937133789,"normalized_volume":60.27974319458008,"liquidity":60667.01706,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Lebanon"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:54:57.283675Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:33.039541Z","added_at":"2026-05-25T15:17:08.578368Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026","event_title":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":[0.094,0.099,0.1045,0.1175,0.124,0.1265,0.115,0.113,0.1265,0.1305,0.1325,0.1335,0.1455,0.137,0.137,0.133,0.133,0.1345,0.133,0.1305,0.141,0.14,0.15,0.149,0.145,0.155,0.1465,0.1505,0.1465,0.147,0.1505,0.1445,0.147,0.1525]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2002530","event_id":"386759","slug":"israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-april-26-2026","question":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?","group_item_title":"April 26","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-16T23:50:47.971519Z","end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-27T06:09:26Z","volume":77082.38075900002,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.09841537475586,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Lebanon"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:31.658721Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:31.658721Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-april-26-2026","event_title":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2002531","event_id":"386759","slug":"israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026","question":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"May 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-16T23:50:50.064747Z","end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-01T06:20:17Z","volume":1631784.076205004,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":56.72380828857422,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Lebanon"],"updated_at":"2026-06-02T06:32:04.169942Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-02T05:15:45.814942Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026","event_title":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2354011","event_id":"386759","slug":"israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026","question":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 15","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-25T15:18:27.433145Z","end_date":"2026-06-15T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-20T00:37:38Z","volume":3245622.014681998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":62.308162689208984,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Lebanon"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T00:43:30.259710Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T00:26:29.945149Z","added_at":"2026-05-25T15:17:08.578368Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026","event_title":"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/386759","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:02:19.557531Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?\" — top market at 25% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}