{"source":"polymarket","id":"386788","ticker":"israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","slug":"israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","title":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-16T23:52:09.323000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11144931.787282055,"volume_24hr":172225.662559,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":43.72692108154297,"normalized_volume":55.624000549316406,"liquidity":460035.98229,"open_interest":2810453.557416,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"849","slug":"lebanon","label":"Lebanon"},{"id":"104010","slug":"diplomacy-ceasefire","label":"Iran Ceasefire"},{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"104064","slug":"israel-x-iran","label":"Israel x Iran"},{"id":"297","slug":"hezbollah","label":"Hezbollah"},{"id":"415","slug":"peace-deal","label":"Peace Deal"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 31","top_outcome_probability":0.09,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-13813.521261999995,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:32.700216Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:32.700216Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","chart_24h":[144372.48406300007,127275.282892,114864.76532100007,122268.04302600006,123806.51029500007,122973.70419500007,117980.86018300008,110784.22089499998,107881.01536499998,106311.26024599999,104803.445944,107496.81304899999,218475.135855,216405.049629,203217.58108,205781.152046,205345.65930999996,205422.393505,205293.93609099998,205227.85197299998,205227.85197299998,205478.211784,207053.64648799997,208356.75648799998,204055.15025000004,201513.218856,209107.350884,211163.746016,208542.333762,204200.899072,177363.784272,172307.843219,172490.127303,172483.28519999998],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2126516","event_id":"386788","slug":"israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026","question":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"July 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.09,0.91],"probability":0.09,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-13T22:16:32.959448Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":261853.0417410005,"volume_24hr":10730.418879,"prob_24h_change":-0.015,"volume_24h_change":-13813.521261999995,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.996578216552734,"normalized_volume":43.14170455932617,"liquidity":70193.9979,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:40:36.488548Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:38:15.962017Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026","event_title":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":[0.105,0.105,0.105,0.1,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.115,0.115,0.1,0.1,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.095,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2002564","event_id":"386788","slug":"israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-262","question":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.037,0.963],"probability":0.037,"spread":0.006,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-16T23:52:09.323000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7867481.8056640485,"volume_24hr":161495.24367999999,"prob_24h_change":0.003999999999999997,"volume_24h_change":41550.35613499991,"normalized_vol_24hr":48.413230895996094,"normalized_volume":69.88494110107422,"liquidity":393567.15126,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T11:54:57.283675Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T11:52:33.039541Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-262","event_title":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":[0.033,0.0385,0.0365,0.0375,0.039,0.039,0.039,0.0395,0.039,0.039,0.0385,0.0395,0.039,0.039,0.038,0.0345,0.0345,0.034,0.033,0.0325,0.0325,0.0315,0.033,0.0325,0.033,0.0335,0.0305,0.0325,0.033,0.0335,0.0335,0.033,0.0375,0.037]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2002562","event_id":"386788","slug":"israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-april-22-2026","question":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?","group_item_title":"April 22","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-16T23:52:09.580562Z","end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-04-23T07:39:42Z","volume":156666.77830900002,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.66226577758789,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:31.658721Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:31.658721Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-april-22-2026","event_title":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2002563","event_id":"386788","slug":"israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-april-30-2026","question":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"April 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-16T23:52:11.592000Z","end_date":"2026-04-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-05-01T06:46:50Z","volume":157948.44982900005,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.716312408447266,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:31.658721Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:31.658721Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-april-30-2026","event_title":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2126515","event_id":"386788","slug":"israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026","question":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"May 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-30T19:53:59.764093Z","end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-01T06:31:40Z","volume":2700981.7117390055,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":60.79072189331055,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-02T06:32:04.169942Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-02T05:01:41.324613Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026","event_title":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2126517","event_id":"386788","slug":"israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026","question":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[],"probability":null,"spread":1.0,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":null,"end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Israel","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-20T13:42:35.732116Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:31.658721Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/386788","as_of":"2026-06-21T12:03:11.248497Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?\" — top market at 4% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}