{"source":"polymarket","id":"403638","ticker":"etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026","slug":"etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026","title":"Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.\n\nIf the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026-TPGzJNCX3sOz.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026-TPGzJNCX3sOz.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-21T19:41:35.205316Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21.239133,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.1099910736083984,"liquidity":24.2,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"tags":[{"id":"84","slug":"weather","label":"Weather"},{"id":"495","slug":"volcano","label":"volcano"},{"id":"104718","slug":"mtpt-etna","label":"Mt. Etna"},{"id":"104716","slug":"erupt","label":"Erupt"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.415,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.07500000000000001,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:33:43.868081Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:33:43.868081Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2045571","event_id":"403638","slug":"etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026","question":"Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.\n\nIf the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.\n","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026-TPGzJNCX3sOz.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026-TPGzJNCX3sOz.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.415,0.585],"probability":0.415,"spread":0.81,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-21T19:35:58.607782Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21.239133,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.07500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.468003511428833,"liquidity":32.6492,"categories":["Climate and Weather"],"countries":["Italy"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:35:34.933797Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:33:44.226062Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026/etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026","event_title":"Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.49,0.49,0.495,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.415,0.44,0.43,0.405,0.41,0.415,0.405,0.395,0.4,0.42]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/403638","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:40:35.054729Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?\" — top market at 42% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}