{"source":"polymarket","id":"413893","ticker":"us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026","slug":"us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026","title":"US economic state at the end of 2026?","description":"The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-24T21:54:05.761501Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4007.706552,"volume_24hr":2.32,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.5818072557449341,"normalized_volume":15.109688758850098,"liquidity":781.53957,"open_interest":2107.972976,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[{"id":"100328","slug":"economy","label":"Economy"},{"id":"101701","slug":"cpi","label":"CPI"},{"id":"1624","slug":"unemployment","label":"unemployment"},{"id":"702","slug":"inflation","label":"Inflation"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)","top_outcome_probability":0.47,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.07500000000000007,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-242.4,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:10:30.445669Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T10:10:30.445669Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026","chart_24h":[244.72,13.1,13.1,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32,2.32],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2069849","event_id":"413893","slug":"will-the-us-economy-be-overheating-at-the-end-of-2026","question":"Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)","description":"The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.47,0.53],"probability":0.47,"spread":0.38,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-24T21:49:55.879433Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":771.733732,"volume_24hr":2.32,"prob_24h_change":-0.07500000000000007,"volume_24h_change":-242.4,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.5965895056724548,"normalized_volume":11.34326171875,"liquidity":106.5785,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:12:17.592301Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T10:10:30.680895Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026/will-the-us-economy-be-overheating-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"US economic state at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.545,0.49,0.505,0.54,0.535,0.43,0.475,0.475,0.445,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.505,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.495,0.495,0.495,0.495,0.505,0.47]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2069847","event_id":"413893","slug":"will-the-us-economy-be-in-a-soft-landing-at-the-end-of-2026","question":"Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)","description":"The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.315,0.685],"probability":0.315,"spread":0.45,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-24T21:49:51.798065Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1810.960927,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.07500000000000001,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.436982154846191,"liquidity":391.2033,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:58:26.908919Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:56:44.077706Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026/will-the-us-economy-be-in-a-soft-landing-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"US economic state at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.24,0.24,0.245,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.315,0.32,0.325,0.315,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.315,0.315,0.32,0.315,0.315,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.315,0.32,0.315,0.32,0.315]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2069850","event_id":"413893","slug":"will-the-us-economy-have-slack-at-the-end-of-2026","question":"Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)","description":"The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.181,0.819],"probability":0.181,"spread":0.344,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-24T21:49:55.624248Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":730.2725,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.155900955200195,"liquidity":166.4509,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:44:47.480616Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:43:05.843248Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026/will-the-us-economy-have-slack-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"US economic state at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.181,0.181,0.181,0.181,0.181,0.182,0.181]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2069848","event_id":"413893","slug":"will-the-us-economy-be-in-stagflation-at-the-end-of-2026","question":"Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":"Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)","description":"The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-HW5PwA-mSi5Q.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.165,0.835],"probability":0.165,"spread":0.25,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-24T21:49:51.541130Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":694.7393930000001,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999981,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.988014221191406,"liquidity":104.3202,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:44:47.480616Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:43:05.843248Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026/will-the-us-economy-be-in-stagflation-at-the-end-of-2026","event_title":"US economic state at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.165,0.165,0.175,0.175,0.175,0.185,0.175,0.175,0.17,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.165,0.16,0.165,0.17,0.16,0.165]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/413893","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:17:34.113377Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"US economic state at the end of 2026?\" — top market at 47% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}