{"source":"polymarket","id":"425106","ticker":"us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2026","slug":"us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2026","title":"US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?","description":"The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nIf the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.\n\nThe resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2025-9QR3kDVV15bt.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2025-9QR3kDVV15bt.png","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-27T20:58:47.283082Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":519.795644,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.585908889770508,"liquidity":141.9802,"open_interest":279.07292,"categories":["Culture","Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"596","slug":"pop-culture","label":"Culture"},{"id":"74","slug":"science","label":"Science"},{"id":"102000","slug":"macro-indicators","label":"Macro Indicators"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.367,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0020000000000000018,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T12:15:44.184341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T12:15:44.184341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2026","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2099906","event_id":"425106","slug":"us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2026","question":"US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nIf the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.\n\nThe resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2025-9QR3kDVV15bt.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2025-9QR3kDVV15bt.png","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.367,0.633],"probability":0.367,"spread":0.698,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-27T20:55:52.177412Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":519.795644,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.03708267211914,"liquidity":40.91086,"categories":["Culture","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:40:48.054361Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T03:53:38.976466Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2026/us-fertility-rate-up-in-q1-2026","event_title":"US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?","chart_24h":[0.365,0.365,0.365,0.365,0.365,0.365,0.364,0.365,0.3645,0.3645,0.3645,0.366,0.3665,0.3665,0.3665,0.367,0.367,0.367,0.367,0.367,0.367,0.367,0.367]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/425106","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:28:48.801087Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?\" — top market at 37% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}