{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/434672","as_of":"2026-10-14T03:38:58.995681Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?\" — 3 markets; highest \"December 31\" at 6% as of 2026-10-14 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/434672","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-prymorske-by"},"source":"polymarket","id":"434672","ticker":"will-russia-capture-prymorske-by","slug":"will-russia-capture-prymorske-by","title":"Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png\n\nPrymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-jcMx3oA7tIqU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-jcMx3oA7tIqU.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-30T19:54:00.025232Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":128284.971568,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.42841148376465,"liquidity":2643.9653,"open_interest":2688.954889,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"December 31","top_outcome_probability":0.06,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0049999999999999975,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-11.458334,"updated_at":"2026-10-14T03:20:51.226177Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-14T03:20:51.226177Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-prymorske-by","chart_24h":[11.458334,11.458334,11.458334,11.458334,11.458334,11.458334,11.458334,11.458334,11.458334,11.458334,10.416667,10.416667,10.416667,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":3,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2125426","event_id":"434672","slug":"will-russia-capture-prymorske-by-december-31-2026","question":"Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png\n\nPrymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-jcMx3oA7tIqU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-jcMx3oA7tIqU.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.06,0.94],"probability":0.06,"spread":0.02,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-30T19:54:00.025232Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":55972.224629000004,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0049999999999999975,"volume_24h_change":-11.458334,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.06690216064453,"liquidity":2650.5045,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-14T03:20:51.761122Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-14T03:20:51.761122Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-prymorske-by/will-russia-capture-prymorske-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?","chart_24h":[0.055,0.06,0.055,0.055,0.06,0.06,0.055,0.065,0.065,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.055,0.05,0.055,0.05,0.065,0.05,0.06,0.065,0.05,0.05,0.06]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2125424","event_id":"434672","slug":"will-russia-capture-prymorske-by-june-30-2026","question":"Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png \n\nIntersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png \n\nPrymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png \n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-jcMx3oA7tIqU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-jcMx3oA7tIqU.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-30T19:54:03.876131Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T06:36:37Z","result":"no","volume":17209.914402,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.90945053100586,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-07-02T06:51:54.161900Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-02T01:38:58.610384Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-prymorske-by/will-russia-capture-prymorske-by-june-30-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?","chart_24h":null},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2125425","event_id":"434672","slug":"will-russia-capture-prymorske-by-september-30-2026","question":"Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"September 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain\n- Assessed Russian Advances\n\nShading under the following layers will not qualify:\n- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas\n- Claimed Russian Territory\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png\n\nPrymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-jcMx3oA7tIqU.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-jcMx3oA7tIqU.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-04-30T19:54:01.834624Z","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":"2026-10-01T06:28:59Z","result":"no","volume":55102.832536999995,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.966548919677734,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T06:32:56.026672Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T06:32:56.026672Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-prymorske-by/will-russia-capture-prymorske-by-september-30-2026","event_title":"Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?","chart_24h":null}]}