{"source":"polymarket","id":"435121","ticker":"who-will-trump-talk-to","slug":"who-will-trump-talk-to","title":"KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.\n\nA declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.\n\nThe claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-38HZ6qxWev1f.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-38HZ6qxWev1f.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-01T22:17:56.572468Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":76832.53134999999,"volume_24hr":23800.75765,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.764469146728516,"normalized_volume":27.644466400146484,"liquidity":23508.8003,"open_interest":2830.200499,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"101926","slug":"kurds","label":"Kurds"},{"id":"104009","slug":"regional-spillover","label":"Regional Spillover"},{"id":"104113","slug":"kurdistan","label":"Kurdistan"},{"id":"100756","slug":"iraq","label":"iraq"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"104112","slug":"kurdistan-regional-government","label":"Kurdistan Regional Government"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.065,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.015,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":23800.75765,"updated_at":"2026-06-11T09:18:34.244555Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T09:18:34.244555Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-talk-to","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,5659.99,13373.98,19427.98,19427.98,21263.98,22141.98,23535.63,23798.63,23798.63,23798.63],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2126490","event_id":"435121","slug":"who-will-trump-talk-to","question":"KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.\n\nA declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.\n\nThe claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-38HZ6qxWev1f.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/krg-declares-independence-from-iraq-38HZ6qxWev1f.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.065,0.935],"probability":0.065,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-01T22:15:55.713355Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":76832.53134999999,"volume_24hr":23800.75765,"prob_24h_change":-0.015,"volume_24h_change":23800.75765,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.675025939941406,"normalized_volume":32.46098327636719,"liquidity":23508.8003,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Iraq"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T09:06:51.577589Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T09:04:57.390155Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-talk-to/who-will-trump-talk-to","event_title":"KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?","chart_24h":[0.08,0.075,0.07,0.075,0.075,0.065,0.065,0.07,0.065,0.065]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/435121","as_of":"2026-06-11T09:26:24.466334Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?\" — top market at 6% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}