{"source":"polymarket","id":"452146","ticker":"will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by","slug":"will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by","title":"Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351463° N, 37.207979° E) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nRodynske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/inyaBPNNyVocH72e8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-by-v3VvUAklGKar.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-by-v3VvUAklGKar.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-05T23:45:49.619474Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":74754.68988799989,"volume_24hr":4763.14403,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":22.53986167907715,"normalized_volume":26.445011138916016,"liquidity":10614.9173,"open_interest":15113.422336,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"96","slug":"ukraine","label":"Ukraine"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 31","top_outcome_probability":0.28,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.03500000000000003,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":116.99883,"updated_at":"2026-06-23T20:38:20.248455Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-23T20:38:20.248455Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by","chart_24h":[309.263912,309.263912,545.486491,545.486491,545.486491,545.486491,549.596077,549.596077,559.596077,549.596077,549.596077,549.596077,549.596077,549.596077,549.596077,549.596077,464.596077,419.596077,419.596077,321.172165,321.172165,321.172165,321.172165,321.172165,3275.782165,3282.44883,3232.43883,3232.43883,3232.43883,3556.87323,3556.87323,3963.84403,4158.84403,4158.84403],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2439086","event_id":"452146","slug":"will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by-july-31","question":"Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351463° N, 37.207979° E) between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nRodynske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/inyaBPNNyVocH72e8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-by-v3VvUAklGKar.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-by-v3VvUAklGKar.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.28,0.72],"probability":0.28,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-04T22:10:28.743840Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12313.233491999958,"volume_24hr":246.99883,"prob_24h_change":0.03500000000000003,"volume_24h_change":116.99883,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.648058891296387,"normalized_volume":24.5891170501709,"liquidity":2507.5447,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-23T19:27:37.153802Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-23T14:42:07.804916Z","added_at":"2026-06-04T22:12:18.284685Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by-july-31","event_title":"Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?","chart_24h":[0.245,0.255,0.285,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.275,0.265,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.265,0.265,0.275,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2166651","event_id":"452146","slug":"will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by-june-30","question":"Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351463° N, 37.207979° E) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nRodynske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/inyaBPNNyVocH72e8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-by-v3VvUAklGKar.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-by-v3VvUAklGKar.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.045,0.955],"probability":0.045,"spread":0.028,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-05T23:45:49.619474Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":50343.77684099993,"volume_24hr":4516.1452,"prob_24h_change":-0.04000000000000001,"volume_24h_change":4336.881288,"normalized_vol_24hr":24.808555603027344,"normalized_volume":32.49126434326172,"liquidity":8251.83129,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-23T20:40:40.656693Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-23T20:38:20.586382Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by-june-30","event_title":"Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?","chart_24h":[0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.035,0.0345,0.0345,0.0345,0.0355,0.036,0.041,0.0475]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2166650","event_id":"452146","slug":"will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by-may-31","question":"Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?","group_item_title":"May 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351463° N, 37.207979° E) between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nRodynske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nOnce Russia captures the entirety of Rodynske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/inyaBPNNyVocH72e8\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-by-v3VvUAklGKar.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-by-v3VvUAklGKar.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-05T23:45:47.587933Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-01T07:13:24Z","volume":12097.679555000004,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.49699592590332,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-02T07:17:57.086822Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-02T04:33:55.636583Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by/will-russia-capture-all-of-rodynske-again-by-may-31","event_title":"Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/452146","as_of":"2026-06-23T20:44:24.610540Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?\" — top market at 4% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}