{"source":"polymarket","id":"485282","ticker":"how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-18","slug":"how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-18","title":"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:53:02.324417Z","end_date":"2026-05-24T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":125418.47605900001,"volume_24hr":23364.516834,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.640010833740234,"normalized_volume":31.485219955444336,"liquidity":44887.34226,"open_interest":66109.518427,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"104139","slug":"hormuz","label":"Hormuz"},{"id":"104134","slug":"tanker","label":"tanker"},{"id":"78","slug":"iran","label":"Iran"},{"id":"309","slug":"oil","label":"Oil"},{"id":"103160","slug":"rewards-50-4pt5-20","label":"Rewards 50, 4.5, 20"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"262","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","label":"Strait of Hormuz"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"40-59","top_outcome_probability":0.455,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.07,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2570.6661169999998,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:55:06.528843Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:55:06.528843Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:54:34.911600Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-18","chart_24h":[11480.458991,10698.454662,10678.386787,10967.721882,10988.527979999999,12463.407921,12679.790168,11920.630168,12027.388672,12984.888481,12984.888481,14175.518481,14283.464269999999,14258.39927,14295.675635,14464.945635,14549.945635,14448.421744,16175.627893,16235.957893,17106.467660000002,16865.55036,16834.869843,16879.237090000002,17204.58709,16909.561637000003,17728.807481,17827.757317,18045.373642000002,17500.101536000002,21585.2884,23098.816396000002,22119.578723000002,22130.267048,23364.516834],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2261444","event_id":"485282","slug":"will-40-59-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","question":"Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?","group_item_title":"40-59","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.455,0.545],"probability":0.455,"spread":0.03,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:48:25.867589Z","end_date":"2026-05-24T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14552.622531999998,"volume_24hr":4205.729358,"prob_24h_change":0.07,"volume_24h_change":2570.6661169999998,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.222393035888672,"normalized_volume":26.95792007446289,"liquidity":1280.6308,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:56:39.943080Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:55:06.689494Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:54:35.087752Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-18/will-40-59-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","event_title":"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?","chart_24h":[0.385,0.385,0.39,0.39,0.375,0.305,0.32,0.315,0.32,0.315,0.32,0.305,0.305,0.31,0.335,0.355,0.34,0.32,0.315,0.375,0.37,0.39,0.26,0.345,0.335,0.385,0.38,0.38,0.385,0.385,0.475,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.455]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2261443","event_id":"485282","slug":"will-20-39-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","question":"Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?","group_item_title":"20-39","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.435,0.565],"probability":0.435,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:48:24.338476Z","end_date":"2026-05-24T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12597.769157,"volume_24hr":3805.133197,"prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000018,"volume_24h_change":1969.1127410000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.57337188720703,"normalized_volume":26.1527156829834,"liquidity":1813.748,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:56:39.943080Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:55:06.689494Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:54:35.087752Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-18/will-20-39-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","event_title":"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?","chart_24h":[0.455,0.435,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.455,0.435,0.43,0.435,0.455,0.46,0.445,0.445,0.445,0.435,0.435,0.45,0.45,0.455,0.455,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.505,0.52,0.505,0.51,0.505,0.455,0.455,0.44,0.435,0.435]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2261445","event_id":"485282","slug":"will-60-79-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","question":"Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?","group_item_title":"60-79","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0545,0.9455],"probability":0.0545,"spread":0.021,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:48:27.949755Z","end_date":"2026-05-24T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21246.529413999997,"volume_24hr":5923.054195000001,"prob_24h_change":-0.030500000000000006,"volume_24h_change":2618.216386000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":29.501840591430664,"normalized_volume":29.12830924987793,"liquidity":10631.14735,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:56:39.943080Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:55:06.689494Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:54:35.087752Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-18/will-60-79-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","event_title":"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?","chart_24h":[0.085,0.105,0.12,0.12,0.085,0.105,0.145,0.155,0.155,0.145,0.135,0.125,0.125,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.105,0.105,0.105,0.095,0.095,0.09,0.085,0.08,0.03,0.0595,0.045,0.0455,0.019,0.047,0.089,0.0735,0.0545]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2261446","event_id":"485282","slug":"will-80-or-more-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","question":"Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?","group_item_title":"80+","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":0.008,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:48:34.029231Z","end_date":"2026-05-24T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":45119.71205700001,"volume_24hr":5400.042652,"prob_24h_change":-0.020499999999999997,"volume_24h_change":3169.160263,"normalized_vol_24hr":28.877368927001953,"normalized_volume":33.697872161865234,"liquidity":17918.45324,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:56:39.943080Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:55:06.689494Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:54:35.087752Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-18/will-80-or-more-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","event_title":"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?","chart_24h":[0.0605,0.0605,0.066,0.0665,0.0735,0.0505,0.0545,0.0885,0.0845,0.08,0.0805,0.0795,0.092,0.0755,0.057,0.0725,0.0725,0.1415,0.099,0.068,0.068,0.067,0.082,0.0685,0.057,0.0185,0.0455,0.0355,0.0395,0.0275,0.03,0.0455,0.0425,0.044,0.04]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2261442","event_id":"485282","slug":"will-fewer-than-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","question":"Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?","group_item_title":"<20","description":"This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.029,0.971],"probability":0.029,"spread":0.016,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T19:48:24.083262Z","end_date":"2026-05-24T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":31926.842899000003,"volume_24hr":3879.556925,"prob_24h_change":-0.0009999999999999974,"volume_24h_change":2133.983867,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.698352813720703,"normalized_volume":31.557968139648438,"liquidity":13677.05258,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:56:39.943080Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:55:06.689494Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T19:54:35.087752Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-18/will-fewer-than-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-may-18-may-24","event_title":"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?","chart_24h":[0.03,0.029,0.035,0.033,0.0725,0.0695,0.043,0.037,0.0465,0.0215,0.059,0.074,0.0565,0.0705,0.0705,0.0605,0.06,0.06,0.0695,0.061,0.0535,0.0555,0.065,0.051,0.0435,0.047,0.025,0.044,0.0445,0.058,0.032,0.03,0.03,0.026,0.029]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/485282","as_of":"2026-05-26T16:03:51.790190Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?\" — top market at 5% probability across 5 outcomes","source_url":null}}