{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/48978","as_of":"2026-10-13T06:52:37.280214Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?\" — 3 markets; highest \"June 30, 2027\" at 8% as of 2026-10-13 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/48978","source_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026"},"source":"polymarket","id":"48978","ticker":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","slug":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","title":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-23T23:15:08.640000Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4264527.07344,"volume_24hr":64970.30768500001,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.22578048706055,"normalized_volume":52.944644927978516,"liquidity":186813.89188,"open_interest":972031.784558,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"101970","slug":"world","label":"World"},{"id":"95","slug":"russia","label":"Russia"},{"id":"102486","slug":"ukraine-map","label":"Ukraine Map"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30, 2027","top_outcome_probability":0.085,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":61.108888,"updated_at":"2026-10-13T06:32:33.031057Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-13T06:32:33.031057Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","chart_24h":[68297.825487,68297.825487,68297.825487,66347.825487,66370.045487,66592.425487,66581.314375,66581.314375,66581.314375,66581.314375,66581.314375,66069.534375,66120.959078,64880.007685,64880.007685,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001,64970.30768500001],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":3,"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"3579164","event_id":"48978","slug":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2027","question":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?","group_item_title":"June 30, 2027","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.085,0.915],"probability":0.085,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-08-14T08:19:23.419513Z","end_date":"2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":11199.306354999999,"volume_24hr":94.44,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":61.108888,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.483461380004883,"normalized_volume":25.504947662353516,"liquidity":28554.9367,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-13T06:05:07.826550Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-13T06:05:07.826550Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T08:45:26.704690Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2027","event_title":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","chart_24h":[0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085,0.085]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2374271","event_id":"48978","slug":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-december-31-2026","question":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?","group_item_title":"December 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.\n\nAny continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0265,0.9735],"probability":0.0265,"spread":0.001,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-27T22:15:04.059000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":3208250.632822001,"volume_24hr":64875.867685000005,"prob_24h_change":-0.006000000000000002,"volume_24h_change":61002.76503,"normalized_vol_24hr":50.122005462646484,"normalized_volume":65.84814453125,"liquidity":157955.23605,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-13T05:40:36.991500Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-13T05:40:36.991500Z","added_at":"2026-05-27T22:17:29.503932Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-december-31-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","chart_24h":[0.0275,0.0275,0.028,0.028,0.028,0.028,0.028,0.028,0.0275,0.027,0.027,0.027,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265,0.0265]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"610376","event_id":"48978","slug":"will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","question":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nTerritory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. \n\nOnce Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026--xNOyR0lcMvz.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2025-09-23T23:15:08.640000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-07-01T06:09:38Z","result":"no","volume":1045077.1342629998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":56.357242584228516,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-07-02T06:21:16.123208Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-02T00:53:56.292014Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","event_title":"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?","chart_24h":null}]}