{"source":"polymarket","id":"496260","ticker":"ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by","slug":"ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by","title":"Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nRaul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.\n\nVisits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.\n\nCustody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-june-30-xrWSgh7yTG4n.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-june-30-xrWSgh7yTG4n.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T14:16:29.832888Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":524272.43409799977,"volume_24hr":24565.423402,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.99604797363281,"normalized_volume":39.62504959106445,"liquidity":83754.75002,"open_interest":168950.174469,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"2","slug":"politics","label":"Politics"},{"id":"102868","slug":"cuba","label":"Cuba"},{"id":"126","slug":"trump","label":"Trump"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"104965","slug":"diaz-canel","label":"Diaz-Canel"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"June 30","top_outcome_probability":0.1105,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999995,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2395.8895790000006,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:55:10.692370Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:55:10.692370Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T14:23:47.819658Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by","chart_24h":[23495.709675,23487.512955,23407.049184,25934.969663,25902.969663,25748.891175999997,26565.848674999997,26555.848674999997,28593.261019999998,31962.647508,33558.801624,32592.825335999998,27505.486152999998,27505.486152999998,27195.514237,28627.198136,29172.786369999998,29185.034433999997,28842.012497999996,28713.895292999998,28474.415853,28144.332292999996,28164.109947999998,28417.387021,30331.655646999996,30348.415646999998,24916.193029000002,24376.012293,24196.305935999997,24048.722809,25381.282809,25380.152809,25645.287414,25599.423402,24565.423402],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2287570","event_id":"496260","slug":"ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-june-30","question":"Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nRaul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.\n\nVisits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.\n\nCustody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-june-30-xrWSgh7yTG4n.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-june-30-xrWSgh7yTG4n.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.1105,0.8895],"probability":0.1105,"spread":0.007,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-18T14:12:18.578000Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":275177.6003579997,"volume_24hr":12904.631797,"prob_24h_change":-0.009999999999999995,"volume_24h_change":2395.8895790000006,"normalized_vol_24hr":35.02769088745117,"normalized_volume":46.02733612060547,"liquidity":55149.95953,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:42:19.611805Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:40:54.419951Z","added_at":"2026-05-18T14:23:47.894377Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-june-30","event_title":"Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?","chart_24h":[0.1205,0.1205,0.1125,0.11,0.1095,0.1065,0.108,0.1075,0.1075,0.1205,0.121,0.121,0.121,0.121,0.121,0.123,0.119,0.119,0.119,0.119,0.1195,0.1195,0.1195,0.1195,0.1175,0.1165,0.116,0.116,0.116,0.116,0.116,0.1175,0.118,0.1125,0.1105]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2325607","event_id":"496260","slug":"ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-may-31","question":"Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?","group_item_title":"May 31","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nRaul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.\n\nVisits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.\n\nCustody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-june-30-xrWSgh7yTG4n.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-june-30-xrWSgh7yTG4n.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0175,0.9825],"probability":0.0175,"spread":0.003,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-21T21:10:10.408671Z","end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":249094.83374000006,"volume_24hr":11660.791605,"prob_24h_change":0.0010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":-1326.1758520000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":34.2816276550293,"normalized_volume":45.29835510253906,"liquidity":28323.78371,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T15:27:55.715712Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T15:26:43.601131Z","added_at":"2026-05-21T21:18:41.644149Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by/ex-cuba-leader-raul-castro-in-us-custody-by-may-31","event_title":"Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?","chart_24h":[0.0165,0.0165,0.0165,0.016,0.0155,0.0155,0.013,0.011,0.0105,0.0105,0.014,0.014,0.014,0.014,0.015,0.0155,0.016,0.0165,0.0195,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.016,0.0125,0.012,0.011,0.011,0.011,0.011,0.0155,0.019,0.018,0.017,0.0175]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/496260","as_of":"2026-05-26T16:06:10.464238Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?\" — top market at 11% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}