{"source":"polymarket","id":"511079","ticker":"grok-4pt4-released-by","slug":"grok-4pt4-released-by","title":"Grok 4.4 released by...?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T17:18:08.217503Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18539.937014000003,"volume_24hr":746.993949,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":17.689285278320312,"normalized_volume":21.207992553710938,"liquidity":9171.07056,"open_interest":8574.205299,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[{"id":"1401","slug":"tech","label":"Tech"},{"id":"439","slug":"ai","label":"AI"},{"id":"540","slug":"grok","label":"Grok"},{"id":"282","slug":"elon-musk","label":"Elon Musk"},{"id":"101999","slug":"big-tech","label":"Big Tech"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"July 31","top_outcome_probability":0.67,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-450.4056540000001,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:16:18.987060Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:16:18.987060Z","added_at":"2026-05-22T17:17:30.006260Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt4-released-by","chart_24h":[2509.056567,2509.056567,2509.056567,2500.8165670000003,2514.3077000000003,2514.3077000000003,2489.757799,2690.067799,2875.837799,2725.058858,2725.058858,2725.058858,2725.058858,2739.344571,2739.344571,2837.014571,2796.214571,2797.363994,2811.6497069999996,2811.6497069999996,2789.079707,2789.079707,2789.079707,2789.079707,2789.079707,2789.079707,2789.079707,2789.079707,2789.079707,2789.079707,1345.569062,767.5719819999999,933.6039490000001],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2473168","event_id":"511079","slug":"grok-4pt4-released-by-july-31","question":"Grok 4.4 released by July 31?","group_item_title":"July 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.67,0.33],"probability":0.67,"spread":0.06,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-08T20:51:12.435622Z","end_date":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":507.54850600000003,"volume_24hr":28.571426,"prob_24h_change":-0.0050000000000000044,"volume_24h_change":-450.4056540000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.764190196990967,"normalized_volume":9.960860252380371,"liquidity":1573.8393,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:04:05.080370Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:25.274037Z","added_at":"2026-06-08T20:57:54.505534Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt4-released-by/grok-4pt4-released-by-july-31","event_title":"Grok 4.4 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.675,0.685,0.675,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2325676","event_id":"511079","slug":"grok-4pt4-released-by-june-30","question":"Grok 4.4 released by June 30?","group_item_title":"June 30","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.115,0.885],"probability":0.115,"spread":0.09,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T17:06:45.793846Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11421.774448000002,"volume_24hr":587.689423,"prob_24h_change":-0.020000000000000004,"volume_24h_change":-762.3902860000001,"normalized_vol_24hr":16.89518928527832,"normalized_volume":22.392871856689453,"liquidity":2348.886,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:17:42.898604Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:16:19.209539Z","added_at":"2026-05-22T17:17:30.073144Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt4-released-by/grok-4pt4-released-by-june-30","event_title":"Grok 4.4 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.135,0.135,0.135,0.135,0.19,0.15,0.145,0.14,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.145,0.15,0.15,0.145,0.135,0.14,0.145,0.14,0.14,0.115,0.125,0.125,0.105,0.11]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2325675","event_id":"511079","slug":"grok-4pt4-released-by-june-15","question":"Grok 4.4 released by June 15?","group_item_title":"June 15","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0385,0.9615],"probability":0.0385,"spread":0.015,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-22T17:06:42.992192Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5283.2614029999995,"volume_24hr":130.7331,"prob_24h_change":-0.0165,"volume_24h_change":-549.266678,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.894318580627441,"normalized_volume":18.850244522094727,"liquidity":5486.00856,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:03:43.291229Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:25.274037Z","added_at":"2026-05-22T17:17:30.073144Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt4-released-by/grok-4pt4-released-by-june-15","event_title":"Grok 4.4 released by...?","chart_24h":[0.055,0.055,0.036,0.0405,0.0405,0.044,0.0445,0.0445,0.0445,0.039,0.039,0.039,0.039,0.0385,0.0385,0.0385,0.0385,0.038,0.039]},{"source":"polymarket","id":"2325674","event_id":"511079","slug":"grok-4pt4-released-by-may-31","question":"Grok 4.4 released by May 31?","group_item_title":"May 31","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nGrok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution to this market).\n\nQualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/grok-4pt20-released-by-FREAnoCYA7aN.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":0.001,"active":false,"closed":true,"start_date":"2026-05-22T17:06:36.911471Z","end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","closed_time":"2026-06-01T07:31:18Z","volume":1327.3526570000001,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.266785621643066,"liquidity":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-02T07:33:35.113913Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-02T06:15:11.251681Z","added_at":"2026-05-22T17:17:30.073144Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt4-released-by/grok-4pt4-released-by-may-31","event_title":"Grok 4.4 released by...?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/511079","as_of":"2026-06-10T09:23:02.464714Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Grok 4.4 released by...?\" — top market at 12% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}