{"source":"polymarket","id":"527631","ticker":"israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-again-by-may-31","slug":"israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-again-by-may-31","title":"Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.\n\nA “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.\n\nAerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.\n\nMere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf the date/time of a qualifying crossing cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30-sIcSMCZv9nD6.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30-sIcSMCZv9nD6.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:13:34.335454Z","end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3931.236727000003,"volume_24hr":3931.2367270000036,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":23.8459529876709,"normalized_volume":15.6414794921875,"liquidity":5012.2092,"open_interest":1633.587053,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[{"id":"180","slug":"israel","label":"Israel"},{"id":"297","slug":"hezbollah","label":"Hezbollah"},{"id":"154","slug":"middle-east","label":"Middle East"},{"id":"100265","slug":"geopolitics","label":"Geopolitics"},{"id":"849","slug":"lebanon","label":"Lebanon"}],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"","top_outcome_probability":0.685,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.18500000000000005,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":4070.926727000003,"updated_at":"2026-05-26T22:56:57.750497Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T22:56:57.750497Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:07:01.556079Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-again-by-may-31","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,1028.1616,1366.929193,2753.2031930000003,3725.020671000001,3725.020671000001,3903.7294830000033,3931.2367270000036],"markets":[{"source":"polymarket","id":"2362718","event_id":"527631","slug":"israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-again-by-may-31","question":"Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.\n\nA “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.\n\nAerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.\n\nMere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf the date/time of a qualifying crossing cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30-sIcSMCZv9nD6.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30-sIcSMCZv9nD6.jpg","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":[0.685,0.315],"probability":0.685,"spread":0.01,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-26T17:03:07.007664Z","end_date":"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4070.9267270000028,"volume_24hr":4070.926727000003,"prob_24h_change":0.18500000000000005,"volume_24h_change":4070.926727000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":27.010303497314453,"normalized_volume":20.269630432128906,"liquidity":5123.3065,"categories":["Politics"],"updated_at":"2026-05-26T22:57:20.640865Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-26T22:56:57.796306Z","added_at":"2026-05-26T17:07:01.682036Z","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-again-by-may-31/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-again-by-may-31","event_title":"Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.465,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.685,0.685]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/527631","as_of":"2026-05-26T23:06:01.267743Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Polymarket): \"Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?\" — top market at 68% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}